468
FXUS64 KOUN 120350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1050 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A nearly stationary MCV over Knox and Baylor counties will continue
to support the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
north and east of the MCV.  Although instability is rather weak,
slow storm movement and high PW values will result in a risk of
some flooding through the early evening. The area of heavy rain
currently over western north Texas is expected to gradually
build/shift eastward through the early evening and may impact
parts of south central Oklahoma. Otherwise, cloud debris from the
convection over northern Texas, will add some shade from the early
June sun angle. As the mid-level low/MCV moves slowly southeast
tonight into early Wednesday, modest height rises are expected
over the southern Plains. This will bring more sunshine for
Wednesday along with warmer afternoon temperatures.

We will allow the Flood Watch for parts of western north Texas
to expire at 7 pm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The center of an upper level ridge to our west, will build eastward
through Friday.  This will bring mainly dry weather along with
hotter temperatures. The exception may be far northwest Oklahoma
Thursday evening near a cold front. A shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the southern Rockies and into the central Plains
on Saturday. Lift associated with this feature and a rather strong
low level jet Saturday evening/night, may result in scattered
thunderstorms. The storms should mainly be confined to the
northern third of Oklahoma.

After Saturday, the forecast is a little more unsure.  It`s possible
another disturbance may approach the area from the west early next
week.  This would likely bring better rain chances to northwest
Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have cleared out of the area and VFR
conditions prevail now. The TAFs are written generally as VFR,
with the main exception being a TEMPO group of reduced visibility
at KLAW. There is some potential for MVFR ceilings and/or
visibilities at KSPS and KCSM in the morning, but the probability
is around 30 percent so have kept these out of the TAFs.

KLAW continues to report visibilities of 6SM or less as it has
since 12Z, which does not appear to be representative of the
conditions, although as mentioned earlier, there is some potential
for some reduced visibilities briefly in the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  89  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         65  90  69  96 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  66  89  69  94 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           63  93  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  92  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         65  89  67  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...26