Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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147 FXUS64 KOUN 132340 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon along a cold front in Kansas and a weak surface trough in northeast New Mexico/western Kansas. Ahead of the front in Oklahoma and western north Texas, a capping inversion will prevent develop through the afternoon/evening. Storms that form to our west and north may move into northern (northwest) Oklahoma mainly after 6-7 pm. Weak mid-level flow and high-based clouds will support strong to damaging wind gusts with some of the storms this evening. Storms that reach north central Oklahoma will be later in the evening and should have a reduced risk of strong winds. Another hot day is in store for Friday, as the upper ridge builds over Oklahoma and western north Texas. Surface winds are expected to be lighter Friday afternoon, but dewpoint temperatures and humidity are expected to be slightly lower. Afternoon heat index values will approach 105 across northern Oklahoma, but should remain just below advisory levels. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A shortwave trough will lift northeast across the southern/central Rockies Friday into Friday night. Increasing lift associated with this feature, and a stalled weak front across southern and western Kansas, should result in thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms that form should generally move northeast, so thunderstorm chances will remain rather low for Friday night into early Saturday. The timing of the shortwave trough lifting across the central Plains on Saturday may not be ideal for late afternoon or early evening storms. For now will keep mainly slight/chance PoPs in the forecast for northern Oklahoma. By late in the weekend into early next week, the synoptic pattern will place the southern Plains between a ridge over the eastern third of the U.S. and a developing trough to our west. This should favor a deep southerly flow through roughly 700 mb. This is expected to bring slightly cooler daytime temperatures with low chances of showers and storms. The thunderstorms should generally be confined to parts of western and southeast Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The main issue with this aviation package will be the potential of strong winds underneath and near thunderstorms that will likely affect portions of northern Oklahoma this evening. The highest chances of the strong winds with storms in the vicinity will be at KWWR, but it will also be possible at KPNC as well later in the evening depending on how the storms evolve in Kansas. Even as showers and thunderstorms dissipate later this evening, there could be strong winds associated with these as well. The potential of them at any specific TAF site is relatively low, but scattered showers and storms will be around northern Oklahoma this evening. After the storms dissipate and the winds calm down late this evening, no significant aviation issues are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 71 95 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 71 97 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 68 99 69 95 / 20 0 20 20 Ponca City OK 71 95 71 95 / 20 0 10 0 Durant OK 68 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...26