668
FXUS64 KOUN 232343
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

    - Areas of fog, some dense tonight, mainly southeast of I-44.

    - Rain chances return Tuesday/Tuesday night (30-50%) with
      next cold front.

    - Additional chances for rain Friday into Saturday, but lower
      than normal confidence during this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Skies have been slow to clear across central and eastern Oklahoma
early this afternoon, keeping temperatures cooler in the mid to
upper 60s, with some low 70s to the west. With continued clearing
overnight and light winds, expect good radiational cooling
conditions. This will help low temperatures fall into the low 50s
north to upper 50s south. With substantial ground moisture across
central and southern parts of the area, conditions will also be
favorable for at least patchy fog to develop early Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday will see a bit of a warming trend with highs expected to
reach the upper 70s and low 80s ahead of our next cold front. This
front will move across the area during the afternoon and evening as
a cutoff low develops to our north and east. This system is expected
to bring a chance (30-50%) for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms to the area, with the best chances across central and
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Wednesday and Thursday appear dry and mild as the upper low is
forecast to move southward into Arkansas. As it does so, PTC9
(likely to be Hurricane Helene at this point) is forecast to move
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Most models suggest the
upper low and tropical system will then undergo a Fujiwhara
interaction as the two systems rotate around each other.
Depending on how all of that shakes out, we could see tropical
moisture entrained into the circulation of the upper low and
advected westward into our area, which would set up the potential
for rain chances to rotate into the area from the east. A lot of
factors are at play to lead to this scenario, so expect continued
changes to the forecast as models come into better agreement. For
now, we have 20-30% chances for rain across roughly the eastern
half of the area Friday into Saturday. The temperature forecast is
also a bit uncertain by late week into the weekend, as greater
cloud/shower coverage would likely lead to cooler temperatures
than we have currently.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...IFR conditions introduced to forecast...

With slow, late day clearing across central and southeast portions
of Oklahoma, along with expected clear skies overnight with light
wind and wet ground, we will be more aggressive with BR/FG
development late tonight and tomorrow morning. IFR conditions
appear likely from central into southeast portions of Oklahoma.
With increasing southwest/downslope component to lower level wind
fields ahead of tomorrows cold front, will be optimistic and
bring VFR conditions back before 17Z. Mid level clouds will
increase with upper wave, and cold front will switch winds to
northerly across northern/western Oklahoma before end of forecast.
Will leave mention of TSRA out for now with uncertainty and
probs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  81  58  78 /   0  10  30  10
Hobart OK         55  88  58  84 /   0  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  89  62  85 /   0  10  40   0
Gage OK           52  84  52  83 /   0  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     54  78  54  80 /   0  10  10   0
Durant OK         60  87  62  84 /   0   0  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...11