Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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995 FXUS64 KOUN 170245 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 945 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 824 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Low chance for a few showers/storms west this afternoon/evening - Above average temperatures much of the week - Rain chances Tuesday night/Wednesday north and west, higher rain chances areawide starting Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 There is a low (10-15%) chance of a few showers and storms later this afternoon and evening in parts of western OK and western north TX. If these storms do occur, gusty winds will be possible. All this being said, most locations across the fa are expected to remain dry again tonight and during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the mid and upper 60s. Highs on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s across the area with the mid 80s in eastern parts of the fa. The temperatures Tuesday afternoon are expected to be as much as 5 to 8 degrees above average. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Models show an upper low lifting NE into the northern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. The associated trough will affect NW portions of the fa bringing a chance for showers and storms to mainly parts of western and northern OK Tuesday night and Wednesday. After this system passes by, a mid/upper level ridge will affect the region before the next upper low/trough begins to approach and move across the central and southern Plains this weekend. Models have slowed this system down from previous runs. This system is expected to bring higher and more widespread chances for showers and storms to the fa this weekend. As for temperatures, even warmer temperatures are expected Wednesday into at least Friday. With the previously mention upper ridge over the region during this time, highs in the 90s to around 100 are expected with lows in the 70s. These temperatures are as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year. Temperatures are expected to come back down closer to normal over the weekend with the potential for rain/cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 824 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected until 172400 except around and just after sunrise at KDUA and KSWO where MVFR ceilings are expected. Winds will remain southeast or east and moderately gusty in western Oklahoma during the day Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 88 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 66 93 69 97 / 10 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 67 94 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 65 93 67 96 / 20 0 30 20 Ponca City OK 64 89 67 92 / 0 0 0 20 Durant OK 66 88 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...09