Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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907 FXUS64 KOUN 191731 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Thunderstorms are likely to continue this morning across portions of western and northern Oklahoma. Any stronger storm may produce 30-40 mph wind gusts, but locally heavy rainfall is the main hazard. A tropical cyclone is expected to make landfall this evening across northeastern Mexico. The outer bands of this disturbance may may move close to western north Texas, so have included 15-20% chance of thunderstorms for this area. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies across most of the area will help high temperatures reach into the low 90s this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is possible in the Texas Panhandle this evening and may move into portions of western Oklahoma. This activity should weaken as it moves closer western Oklahoma, but any stronger storm that does make it into the area could produce 30-40 mph wind gusts. Bunker && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The main message in the long term will be the heat concerns during the latter part of the weekend and into next week. A mid- level ridge is expected to move westward over our area starting Saturday. These height rises will foster and increase in high temperatures area-wide. Many locations will see near triple digit heat for several days in a row starting Sunday. Heat Advisories will be likely and maybe even an Excessive Heat warning will be necessary if this trend continues as heat indices will be between 105-110F. There aren`t many days in the long term that will see measurable rainfall. Mid range models suggest that the heat will stick around through the end of next week, when the aforementioned ridge finally starts to break down. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 An outflow boundary has become nearly stationary early this afternoon and may impact OKC/SWO with a weak wind shift over the next hour. Winds behind the outflow should become east to southeast during the afternoon. Heating and the outflow boundary may result in isolated showers and storms mainly during the mid to late afternoon. Otherwise, mainly MVFR to VFR conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 71 88 72 92 / 10 10 0 0 Hobart OK 70 87 71 93 / 10 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 88 72 92 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 66 88 69 93 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 71 90 72 94 / 10 10 0 0 Durant OK 73 92 72 94 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...06