Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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313 FXUS64 KOUN 222013 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 313 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon & evening. - Marginal to slight risk for localized flooding tonight, highest across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas into central Oklahoma. - Rain chances increase Tuesday (30-50%) with next cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across western into central Oklahoma early this afternoon as a cold front continues to make slow progress southward. With the upper trough axis still centered well to our west, we expect additional rounds of showers and storms to move across the area tonight into Monday morning. Relatively weak instability but decent deep layer shear should support the risk for marginally severe storms capable of hail up to quarter size and wind gusts to near 60 mph. In addition to the severe risk, storms will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall this afternoon and overnight as PWATs are running 1.5-2.0". HREF guidance suggests the heaviest axis of additional QPF will be from southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas north and eastward into central Oklahoma, where 1 to locally up to 3" of rain is forecast. Radar observations tend to agree with this scenario with several more rounds out storms moving out of the Texas panhandle. Given we have already seen training of storms across portions of western into central Oklahoma, localized flooding will continue to be a possibility through Monday morning. Activity is expected to diminish Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma as the frontal forcing moves further away and the upper trough weakens. Temperatures on Monday will be much cooler than recent days, with highs only in the 70s across much of the area. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The pattern in the long term portion of the forecast is characterized by higher than normal uncertainty, mainly regarding the track and speed of a cutoff low forecast to develop and its interaction with a tropical system forecast to move northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. Models are in fairly good agreement through Tuesday with a shortwave diving southward within broader troughing over the central US, with this energy expected to begin to cutoff from the main flow somewhere over KS/OK/MO/AR. This will bring another chance (30-50%) for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening as a weak cold front crosses the area. Meanwhile, a tropical system will begin to take shape in the northwest Caribbean and move northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Most models show these two systems interacting as the tropical system landfalls along the eastern Gulf coast, but from here the details become unclear. Some of the guidance merges these two systems and then retrograde the circulation westward towards our area as a blocking ridge sets up across the Great Lakes later this week, potentially bringing rain chances into the region. However, since neither of these systems have yet to develop, continued uncertainty is expected to plague the forecast the next several days. Greater confidence exists in the temperature forecast as mid-upper troughing and north/northeasterly surface winds are maintained over the area much of the week. This should help keep high temperatures 5- 10 degrees below average through the end o the week, with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Thunderstorms are expected across the southern half of Oklahoma into this evening. IFR ceilings and visibility in western Oklahoma will today and expected to extend to most TAF sites for much of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 58 73 56 80 / 90 30 0 10 Hobart OK 55 77 55 85 / 80 10 0 20 Wichita Falls TX 60 78 57 87 / 80 40 10 20 Gage OK 47 75 51 83 / 20 0 0 20 Ponca City OK 57 73 52 79 / 60 20 0 10 Durant OK 66 79 60 86 / 50 60 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...09