Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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096 FXUS64 KOUN 010345 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 906 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Storms moving toward the central part of the Texas panhandle seem to still be on a track that would take them through southwestern Oklahoma and part of northwestern Texas after midnight. The expectation is that they will not be severe when crossing the 100th meridian, but pops were increased to account for the storms there. They should weaken as they continue southeast. Additionally, pops were increase modestly in northwestern Oklahoma to account for the possible arrival of storms now along I-70 in eastern Colorado. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 This Evening: Pleasant/low-impact weather is expected for many this afternoon and evening, though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out. A remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) continues to drift across northeastern Oklahoma early this afternoon. With our area in the subsident `zone` of this feature, additional precipitation chances are very low, though non-zero for far eastern reaches of the forecast area. Further west, near the 100th meridian, an axis of cumulus has emerged atop a notable zone of moisture convergence. While also low odds (10-20%), shower/storm development cannot be ruled out here through ~5-7 PM. Otherwise, most areas will note a dry afternoon, with seasonable temperatures (mid-70s to low-80s). Overnight, previous convection across the High Plains is expected to propagate southeastward towards western Oklahoma (after 2 AM). Rather weak low-level flow and instability raise doubts on maintained intensity into our area, though a limited wind and heavy rainfall threat may ultimately develop from western Oklahoma towards the Red River Valley early Saturday. Saturday: At this update, expectation is for transition from widely scattered morning precipitation towards mostly dry weather, though some signal for scattered afternoon/evening storms is emerging. Low (20-30%) precipitation chances will continue on the periphery of any remnant/decaying cluster(s) of storms through ~midday. This is most likely for southern into eastern zones. While most areas are expected to remain dry into the afternoon/evening, recent guidance has suggested potential for widely scattered thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon across portions of central/northern Oklahoma in the vicinity of a modifying boundary/moisture gradient. Should storms develop and sustain, strong to occasionally severe storms may become a concern, with a wind/hail/heavy rain risk. This potential will be closely followed over coming updates. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Saturday Night/Sunday Morning: Potential for another round of late evening/overnight severe weather is evident. A (subtle) lee wave passage is forecast to yield widespread diurnal convective development across the High Plains on Saturday. A majority of CAM members highlight potential for an organized cluster of storms across western/northern Oklahoma by early Sunday morning. With stronger low-level flow/mass response/instability currently progged, at least occasional severe weather outcomes are expected with this activity. Damaging wind gusts would likely be the main concern, along with some potential for hail. We will also monitor for localized flooding concern, especially if axis of movement trends towards areas where heavier totals have occurred over the past 5-7 days (i.e. southern Oklahoma/north Texas). Rest of The Period: Gradual transition towards more prolonged drier weather is expected. As has been the case at past updates, grand ensemble guidance is keying in on the return of western US upper ridging towards the middle to end of the next work week. A few continued chances for storm clusters are possible through Wednesday, though with the upper pattern in transition, highest odds will continue shifting further north each day/round. Seasonable (upper-80s to 90s temperatures) and mainly dry weather is expected by the midweek. Ungar && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to form over central Oklahoma TAF sites from Kansas to Texas tonight. Thunderstorms may arrive from the west and effect KWWR early Saturday morning. Light winds, most from the east or southeast, are expected to persist. Thunderstorms will move into northwestern Oklahoma tomorrow evening and effect KWWR and KCSM by late evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 85 68 85 / 10 20 20 40 Hobart OK 64 86 67 86 / 40 20 30 40 Wichita Falls TX 66 86 70 87 / 30 30 20 30 Gage OK 60 87 64 88 / 40 30 50 30 Ponca City OK 62 84 67 86 / 10 20 20 30 Durant OK 65 85 70 87 / 10 20 20 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...09