Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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657 FXUS64 KOUN 211057 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 557 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Outside of northern Oklahoma, temperatures today forecast to remain near or even slightly below average. This will be mainly due to anticipated cloud cover. Cannot completely rule additional isolated showers mainly through the morning hours, but rain chances will be too low for inclusion in forecast. Lows tonight will remain above average with southerly winds and seasonably high dewpoints most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Overall pattern of eastern U.S. upper ridge building over the region through the weekend, and shifting west of the Southern Plains continues in the models. H50 heights associated with this ridge appear to be in the 75th to 90th percentile for this time of year (lower 590dm) not quite record territory but well above average. Likewise, H85 temperatures also well above average. This should keep forecast temperatures for much of the region at least 5 to 10 degrees above average through the early part of next week. Less certainty on amount of drying/diurnal mixing out of higher dewpoints, which will have the greatest impact on apparent temperatures and associated heat headlines. Heat advisories still appear likely for the first part of next week ahead of a cold front, most likely Sunday through Tuesday. Depending on progression of cold front and amount of convection, advisories may be needed across southern portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas again on Wednesday. Weak cold front enters northern Oklahoma late Saturday. Some convection appears possible near this boundary across northern and perhaps western Oklahoma, but currently probabilities are below 20 percent. Of course, ensemble forecasts in a weakly forced regime will underforecast convective potential. Most models settle this front down close to I-40 before stalling and lifting back north Sunday and Sunday night. Where this weak front stalls, and how quickly it mixes back to the north, will impact the temperatures on Sunday. In addition, cannot rule out a few thunderstorms near this boundary, but with little in the way of larger scale support, relatively low confidence will keep mention of rain out of forecast for now and we will go with NBM/blended PoPs. GFS continues to be the most aggressive with a stronger front Tuesday/Wednesday, bringing it into northern Oklahoma late Tuesday and much more aggressive with frontal convection Tuesday night into Wednesday with its better upper support. Higher chances for organized convection will likely be to our east, but PoPs will continue late Tuesday through the end of the week with more in the way of northwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Generally unrestricted ceilings and visibilities are expected through the TAF period. Some stratocumulus or cumulus will develop later this morning into the afternoon. The most likely scenario is VFR ceilings (~3500 to 5000 ft AGL). However, there is a 10 to 25% chance of MVFR ceilings may develop. The terminals with the highest probabilities (~20 to 25%) to see MVFR ceilings are across west central into northwest Oklahoma (KCSM and KWWR) with lower probabilities elsewhere (~10%). There is also a very low probability (10% or less) any terminal could see a shower today. Winds will remain from the south to southeast through the TAF period. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 95 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 72 96 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 73 95 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 72 99 73 98 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 74 98 76 98 / 10 0 10 0 Durant OK 72 95 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...10