040
FXUS64 KOUN 241743
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 954 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Updated our POPs and WX grids for isolated rain showers across
central Oklahoma for the next couple of hours. Although
instability is fairly weak, it may be sufficient for a few
lightning strikes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Heat advisory will be issued for Tuesday across the entire forecast
area, with an anticipated increase in dewpoints and hotter
temperatures ahead of a late day/evening frontal boundary. Given
some of the latest probability guidance on dewpoints, an excessive
heat warning (sufficient area/duration of >110F heat indices)
will be possible across central/north central Oklahoma as
dewpoints pool south of the front. This will be a call in the
coming couple of shifts, but will cover the hazard with an
advisory for now. The issuance of heat advisories through Saturday
appear likely, and an excessive heat warning for at least a
portion of the forecast area cannot be ruled out. The hottest day
is still looking to be Friday with veered flow and lower level
thermal ridge ahead of another approaching frontal boundary.

There still appears to be convective potential in the coming
week. The first main episode will be Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning associated with a weak cold front that is
forecast move over the northern half of Oklahoma. Highest chances
for storms will be across north central portions of Oklahoma.
Damaging wind gusts appear possible with the storms across far
northern Oklahoma Tuesday evening. Temperatures behind the this
front could average 5 to 10 degrees less hot for Wednesday into
Thursday, but dewpoints will likely be higher, especially on
Thursday. While portions of north central Oklahoma could see a
reprieve from advisory level heat indices, it will still be
uncomfortable with moderate to high risk WBGT levels.

Another cold front is still progd to approach the region next
weekend, providing the next main opportunity for scattered
showers and storms, along with a brief and slight cool down. Model
trends are to spread the mid and upper level ridge back to the
east by this time, decreasing the northwesterly flow that will
help steer the front into Oklahoma earlier in the week. This will
yield somewhat low confidence that the front would make it much
farther south than northern/northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

All of our terminals should remain under VFR conditions through
the forecast period. Scattered light rain moving across northern
Oklahoma could pass over a couple of our terminals through 20Z,
mainly KWWR and KSWO. A surface low moving across the U.S.
Northern Plains will maintain a southerly surface wind direction
with any current gusts expected to diminish after 01Z as winds
back south- southeast. Wind gusts will increase by late morning
mixing around 16Z and winds veer south-southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  78  99  76 /  20   0  10  20
Hobart OK        100  78 101  76 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  99  79 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          101  76 104  71 /  10   0  20  20
Ponca City OK    102  78 101  73 /  10   0  30  30
Durant OK         98  78  98  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048-
     050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...68