Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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873 FXUS64 KOUN 221918 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Tonight... A weak cold front will move into far northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon. There is a low chance (~20%) of a few showers or thunderstorms develop along the boundary through roughly 10 pm. If a storm or two develops, strong gusty winds will occur. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with some high clouds across the northern half of Oklahoma during the evening and overnight. Sunday... A residual boundary is expected to remain across far northern Oklahoma during the day Sunday. This should keep surface winds with more of an easterly component north of the boundary. Otherwise, the wind is not expected to be as strong on Sunday and temperatures will again approach 100 degrees, especially western and northern Oklahoma. Based on gridded data, it appears parts of north central Oklahoma will have the best chance of reaching or exceeding heat index values of 105. A Heat Advisory will be issued for this area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Sunday night... Surface winds north of the weak boundary in far northern Oklahoma are expected to become southerly and increase Sunday night. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with scattered high clouds mainly across the northern half of Oklahoma. Monday... Triple digit air temperatures are expected across most of Oklahoma and western north Texas. A moderate breeze during the afternoon should provide a little relief from the heat and most areas will not have overly high afternoon dewpoint temperatures. The exception will be south central and southeast Oklahoma. Gridded data has afternoon heat index values over 105 across this area. Dry conditions are expected Monday night with a light to moderate southerly wind. Tuesday... A fast moving shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains late Monday will push a cold front through most of Kansas on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the center of the mid/upper ridge is forecast to retrograde far enough to allow a perturbation to skirt the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This may result in at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms that will mainly impact north central and perhaps central Oklahoma. Strong gusty winds are possible with some of the storms mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. Somewhat warmer mid-level temperatures across northwest and west central Oklahoma may limit the development over this area. PoPs during this period (late afternoon/Tuesday night) are still on the low side (20-40 percent). Before the rain chances, triple digit heat will occur again with perhaps slightly higher afternoon humidity. This will increase heat index values into the 105 to 110 range. Wednesday... Uncertainty on the location of a residual boundary is high for Wednesday, but may be enough to keep air temperatures across northern Oklahoma slightly cooler. Despite the boundary, it appears late afternoon thunderstorms chances will remain rather low (less than 20 percent). Another day of heat index values in the 105 to 110 range is expected, especially across the southern half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Thursday into Friday... It`s possible that a trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Thursday and across the northern Plains Friday. This should reduce the amplitude of the ridge to our west and perhaps lower daytime highs slightly. This would also increase southerly surface winds which is nice, but it also increases evaporation which is not good. Northwest Oklahoma has a low chance of late afternoon storms late Thursday, but most areas will remain dry through this period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Gusty south/southwesterly winds will continue through ~sunset, along with scattered areas of fair weather cumulus. A few (widely scattered) rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across far northern Oklahoma this evening, though probability (<15%) and coverage preclude mention at any terminal this update. Otherwise, a weak front remains forecast to approach the Oklahoma/Kansas border region early on Sunday, and may result in variable winds at KPNC. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 78 98 78 97 / 0 10 0 0 Hobart OK 76 100 76 99 / 0 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 76 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 73 98 75 99 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 77 98 77 99 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 76 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ007-008-012- 013-018>020. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...34