430
FXUS64 KOUN 031711
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Light rain showers continue across portions of northern and west
central OK. This activity is expected to continue into early this
afternoon although coverage could diminish some. Have added some
PoPs further south compared to the previous forecast, generally
just south of I-40 with some chance (30%) PoPs near/just north of
I-40. This is the edge of the cloud cover where a differential
heating boundary could develop. If this does occur, storm
development will be possible along this boundary.

Otherwise, heat continues across portions of the fa today. No
changes currently planned for the heat advisory but will continue
to monitor trends to see if an extension of the advisory a little
bit further north is needed in central OK given the orientation of
the clouds/rain.

Fire weather conditions continue to be a concern in parts of
southwest OK/western north TX this afternoon where RH is expected
to drop to the 20-25% range and vegetation is dry although winds
are currently not expected to be as breezy as yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the cold front are
expected to continue off and on through the day across portions of
northern and western Oklahoma. The degree of destabilization this
afternoon is somewhat in question given the amount of lingering
clouds and showers expected, but if we can see some stronger
heating (most likely on the southern periphery of morning
activity) then there would be a risk once again of strong to
marginally severe wind gusts. Overall this threat appears to be a
lower probability than yesterday.

Elsewhere to the south of the front, another day of hot temperatures
is expected, with heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees once
again. A heat advisory is in effect for these areas. Greater
uncertainty exists on the northern end of the advisory where greater
cloud cover could impact heating, but did not make any changes to
the existing advisory area at this time.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

By Thursday attention will turn to a stronger cold front which will
serve as a focus for afternoon and evening thunderstorm development.
Chances for storms will initially be highest (40-50%) along the
E-W oriented front across northern and central Oklahoma by late
afternoon into early evening, then expand southward overnight.
This could potentially impact outdoor holiday plans for July 4th,
with a risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy rain, and
frequent lighting with the strongest storms.

In addition to thunderstorm chances, Thursday will
also see another day of hot temperatures with heat indices of 105
to 110 expected across most of the area outside of northwest
Oklahoma. Have gone ahead and issued a heat advisory for these
areas.

Temperatures will cool behind the front to near average for this
time of year Friday into the weekend across much of the area as the
center of the mid to upper ridge shifts westward and troughing sets
up over the central and eastern US. Models then show another front
approaching the area by late Sunday into Monday, which could bring
another round of showers and storms with it and drop temperatures
another few degrees.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR/MVFR ceilings expected with mid/high clouds across at least
parts of the area throughout much of the TAF period. Light showers
will continue across portions of northern/west central OK this
afternoon. Storm development will be possible late this afternoon
into tonight mainly along and north of I-40. However, chances too
low for mention in some of the TAFs at this time. Winds will be
shifting throughout much of the TAF period with a shift towards
the NE starting Thursday morning as a cold front begins to move
across parts of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 100  79 101  71 /  20  10  30  40
Hobart OK        101  81 102  70 /  20  10  20  40
Wichita Falls TX 102  81 103  75 /   0   0  10  40
Gage OK           87  70  92  63 /  50  30  20  30
Ponca City OK     91  73  97  65 /  60  30  30  30
Durant OK        100  79 100  74 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ013-018>020-
     022>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ023>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ083>090.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...25