Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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863 FXUS64 KOUN 181943 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A line of thunderstorms are currently developing along a cold front, which extends from Hill City to Garden City (Kansas). A secondary area of thunderstorms could develop along a dryline in the western panhandles within the next several hours. Given the mixed signal among models, the confidence in either complex of storms reaching northwest/western Oklahoma this evening is low to medium (30-50%). Storms that develop in the panhandles will likely weaken and/or dissipate before reaching our western row of counties late this evening, and storms to the north could remain north until tomorrow morning. However, there is the possibility of strong to marginally severe wind gusts affecting northwest Oklahoma if these outflow boundaries from either complex reach our area. Whether the storms in Kansas actually make it into Oklahoma tonight remains highly uncertain and dependent on frontal location/speed. Guidance suggests a medium-high chance of this activity arriving well after midnight and closer to dawn. Models are trending slower with the front and associated precipitation, and the best chances enter northwest Oklahoma after dawn tomorrow with a few rounds possible through mid-day. Given predicted PWAT values of 1.6-1.8 inches, which is relatively high for climatology (between the 90th percentile and daily max values), storms could be efficient rain-producers and could pose a risk of flash flooding. Cloud-cover and rain chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through at least early afternoon, which should keep high temperatures in the low to mid-80`s. Fewer clouds should lead to better diabatic heating with temperatures in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. Expect cloud-cover to begin increasing tomorrow afternoon and overnight from the southeast as the outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone One begins to influence our area. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm prior to making landfall along the gulf coast of Mexico on Wednesday night. Although the center of this storm will remain well south of our area, there is a low chance (20-30%) of showers and storm development within the outer bands late Wednesday night into Thursday morning over western north Texas with these chances spreading into west- central Oklahoma for the first half of Thursday. The main message then turns to heat risk as temperatures then trending upward, beginning on Friday and lasting over the weekend and into early next week. High temperatures are forecast to rise above 100 degrees beginning Saturday for parts of the area and lasting through Monday. A heat advisory will likely be needed for parts of north-central Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Primarily VFR cigs with cu/stratcu and strong southerly winds most terminals through this afternoon. Cigs are expected to rise slowly through the afternoon and become scattered. TSRA will likely commence near cold front across western Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles toward evening and spread into far northwest Oklahoma. TSRA will be confined to KWWR this evening through tomorrow morning with PROB30 at KPNC around daybreak. Elevated SHRA west of SPS/LAW early this afternoon should continue to dissipate or hold steady as it drifts slowly eastward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 72 89 71 88 / 10 10 10 20 Hobart OK 71 89 69 88 / 20 10 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 71 89 72 89 / 0 10 10 20 Gage OK 68 86 66 88 / 40 50 20 20 Ponca City OK 72 90 70 91 / 10 10 10 10 Durant OK 71 86 72 91 / 0 10 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>007-009>012- 014>018-021>024-034-035. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...11