508
FXUS63 KPAH 160357
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Triple digit or close to it heat index Sunday-Monday, and
  again heading into next weekend.

- Daily storm chances Monday thru Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The 1 PM dew point is 51F in Wayne City, IL, but 72F in Poplar
Bluff, MO. Visible satellite shows a diurnal cu field mostly in
conjunction with the higher dew points over WKY/SEMO. These will
disperse with sunset/loss of fuel.

The mean upper ridge moves east with time. Higher temps/dew
points will be realized beginning tmrw and lasting into the new
work week. The ridge is strongest Sunday-Monday with 590+ DM
heights at H5. Dew points close to 70F and high temps well into
the 90s both days means Heat Indices near or into the triple
digits, but looks just shy of headline 105s at this writing. The
only relief will be from the daily heat of day storm chances in
the high instability, low shear environ.

The high pushes further east by mid week, as a low pressure
storm system approaches from the west. Good return flow here/in
between means more pops/clouds Tuesday-Wednesday, which gives a
temporary reprieve with highs in the 80s and a continued daily
chance of showers/storms.

The high retrogrades its ridge anchor thereafter, resulting in
a drier and warmer back half of the week. We`re looking at
highs again in the mid to potentially upper 90s and heat
indices possibly around the century mark again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Light E-ESE winds overnight will become S-SSW at 5-10 kts after
15z as high pressure to our northeast shifts to the south. SCT-
BKN diurnal CU will develop during the 15-18z period,
persisting through 00-03z Monday. Cannot rule out a few stray
showers or thunderstorms developing during the heat of the
afternoon/early evening, but confidence in coverage and timing
was too low to include at this time. Late Sunday night, winds
will relax, remaining southerly, under passing high cirrus
clouds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Sunday night
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS