984
FXUS63 KPAH 312250
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  this weekend and next week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near to a bit above
  average.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Weak mid level impulses will move northeast across the area
through tonight, as a shortwave trof over the Plains approaches
from the west. The shortwave and associated surface low pressure
system will move across the area Saturday, resulting in a very
high (greater than 80 percent chance) of rain and isolated
storms later tonight through Saturday afternoon. On Saturday
there is a marginal risk for severe storms per the Storm
Prediction Center. Forecast parameters not overly favorable for
severe convection, given weak overall lapse rates. There could
be some downburst winds given the instability and forecast moist
vertical profiles, but mostly non-severe with less than ideal
differential theta-e. We should see PoPs on the decrease later
Saturday through Sunday. However, we will leave some slight
chances in given the unsettled look in a few of the models. It
could end up mostly dry.

Next week a consensus of model output has our flow transitioning
from zonal to northwest as an upper low deepens while moving
east along the U.S.-Canadian border. This pattern will support
our continued chance of showers and storms along with slightly
above average temperatures, as a series of upper level impulses
move over our region interacting with a rather warm and unstable
environment. The NBM captures this relatively well, so no real
adjustments needed to its output for our forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Any additional wind gusts will diminish shortly as the boundary
layer begins to decouple after 00-01z with the loss of diurnal
heating. Cigs will continue to gradually thicken/lower through
the overnight as saturation begins to occur with a disturbance
approaching from the west. Scattered pcpn will eventually
overcome dry air between 04-11z when MVFR/IFR cigs will also
begin to spread east across the terminals. The one caveat is
KEVV/KOWB where it may not be until 13-14z when the low cigs
move in.

The steadiest pcpn looks to move through during the morning and
afternoon hours on Saturday before diminishing late day when
MVFR and possibly brief IFR vsby reductions will be possible.
Model time heights support the boundary layer remaining very
saturated into Saturday evening. For this reason, not confident
the low cigs will scatter out as quickly as some of the model
guidance is suggesting. S-SE winds between 10-13 kts can be
expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...DW