Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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168 FXUS63 KPAH 280705 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 205 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next best rain chances come with the return of scattered showers/storms by week`s end. - Mainly dry and seasonal temperatures ride until next weekend, when a more summer-like air mass takes hold. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Isolated showers/storms linger across central IL at this writing. An 18-22 unit H5 short wave vorticity maxima is helping it survive this time of night. The Hi-Res Convection Allowing Model ARW picks up on it best amongst the CAMs, and it maintains this isolated activity but keeps it just to the north of our CWA doorstep thru daybreak. The SWODY1 similarly draws their thunder line on our northern CWA border...so we`ll keep a silent pop there at about 10% (not zero). That same ARW picks up on a trend of the GFS, which wants to develop convection into our Pennyrile counties as this sliver of energy slides southeastward during peak heating today. However, the ARW keeps these isolated returns just to the east of our CWA border. We`ll mirror its modeling, while noting the GFS output with silent but non zero pops. The aforementioned nuances are more or less played out each day thru mid week with subtlety; we`ll stay the course and keep pops silent with a non-zero allowance in the generally moisture starved environ underneath the periodic ripples of energy translations within the embedded northwesterlies aloft. The models depict the primary trof axis making Ohio Valley passage Thursday, with teleconnected ridging aloft working across our CWA in its wake. Thereafter what follows for the week`s end is the beginning return of a more active, daily chance pops pattern as we head into the weekend. Seasonal temps for the bulk of the week will warm/moisten slightly as this metamorphosis occurs, with summer-like mid-upper 80s/mid-upper 60s anticipated by Days 6-7 of the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Visual Flight Rules will prevail this package. FEW-SCT bases around 5K FT AGL are possible with daytime heating, and northwesterlies may attain some gustiness during the peak diurnal hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$