Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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713 FXUS63 KPAH 271709 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...Updated for 18z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant weather is expected through at least Thursday. - Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday through next Monday. No severe weather or heavy rainfall is expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will keep the Quad State under cyclonic northwest flow aloft through Thursday. Impulses riding through the flow may try to spit out some light showers or sprinkles from time to time, but measurable rainfall is not anticipated. A skinny upper ridge will build over the region Thursday night into Friday. The 00Z guidance still cannot agree on how long it will hold up over the area. It could break down Friday night into Saturday or over the second half of next weekend. Once the ridge breaks down, a weak zonal flow aloft will develop with impulses bringing daily chances of showers and storms to the Quad State. There are no signs of heavy rainfall or severe weather through this period. Temperatures will be at or below normal through the week, with the coolest air expected Wednesday into Thursday. Highs then will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. A modest warming trend to near or slightly above normal levels is expected through the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A brief MVFR ceiling will be possible at the start of the TAF period, before continued mixing promotes scattering/lifting of the stratocu deck and a return of widespread VFR conditions for the rest of the period. Some of the CAM guidance hints at isolated convection this afternoon, but this potential would appear to be favored mainly southeast of KOWB-KPAH-KCGI terminals ahead of a surface cold front where dew points are still in the upper 60s to around 70 at midday. Winds will be from a westerly direction throughout, predominantly NW with gusts at times to around 15 kts this afternoon and again by Tuesday PM, while predominantly light from the WSW tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...WFO DVN