Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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850 FXUS63 KPAH 310342 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1042 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions continue into the first half of Friday. Chances of rain begin to increase for portions of southeast Missouri by Friday afternoon/night. - A more unsettled pattern returns this weekend into next week with daily rain chances along with a warmer and more humid airmass. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Upper level heights are increasing across the region this afternoon with high pressure at the surface anchored across the Great Lakes. Easterly surface flow will remain in place through early Friday continuing to keep a drier airmass in place. Further west, an upper level disturbance is progged to slowly move east and slowly amplify over the weekend. Guidance favors some PoPs lifting into far SW zones as early as Friday afternoon. Better height falls, and PVA will favor increasing showers and storms on Saturday. A surface low will lift northeast across portions of eastern Missouri and the Ohio valley increasing low level convergence and advecting richer theta-e air poleward. Albeit weak lapse rates, increasing instability will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms. There may be enough instability and deep layer shear (~30-40 knots) for a strong storm or two. Coverage is expected to remain isolated with strong wind gusts and small hail the main hazards. Additionally, heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is also possible given antecedent conditions. As the previous discussion mentioned, a marginal to slight risk was introduced into the ERO for Saturday. Next week still looks unsettled with rain chances continuing. Several upper waves are expected to traverse the area next week offering chances for showers and storms. Warmer temperatures will also return by next week. Highs will reach back into the mid to upper 80`s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR conditions prevail as high cirrus clouds have spread across the region with light & variable winds. Friday is still looking like a mainly dry day as model guidance continues to trend slower with pcpn due to a very dry boundary layer. This will allow for better mixing with easterly winds around 10-12 kts and gusts 17-18 kts. By Friday evening, we will begin to see some saturation in the column as pcpn becomes possible at KCGI around 03z. There is a concern for MVFR/IFR cigs, but continue to think model guidance is being too pessimistic with the low cigs likely holding off until the end/after the TAF period. Light easterly winds between 6-8 kts are progged. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...DW