362
FXUS61 KPBZ 101748
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
148 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures are expected through early Tuesday
under an upper-level through pattern. Rising temperatures and
dry weather will characterize the mid to late week period.
Thunderstorm chances may return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool conditions will persist today under northwest flow.
- A few light showers may develop after 2pm.
- Clear conditions tonight will drop temperatures into mid-40s
  with a lingering trough; pockets of fog may develop.

--------------------------------------------------------------

As a shortwave trough digs into the region from the Great
Lakes, clouds will increase from north to south through the day.
A few stray showers may develop downstream of Lake Erie during
the afternoon in northwest flow and modest instability. With
850mb temps only ranging between 5 to 6 degrees Celsius, maximum
temperatures will struggle to reach 70F north of I-70.

Dry, quiet, and cool weather is anticipated tonight into early
Tuesday morning with a lingering upper-level low and clearing
clouds prompting radiational cooling. Probabilities range
between 60 to 95% that MinT`s will be less than or equal to
45F. Higher probabilities are noted in eastern Ohio where
persist clear conditions are likely. Hi-Res model guidance are
also suggesting pockets of fog in eastern Ohio and along the
West Virginia ridges. However, the probability of hazardous
driving conditions (low visibility) is still considered low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cool conditions persist into Tuesday.
- Ridging early Wednesday morning returns near to above average
  temperatures across the region.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dry, quiet weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday under
weak ridging. Temperatures will likely be near-average Tuesday
as cold air exits east. Wednesday, temperatures will trend above
the climatological average with sufficient warm advection from
the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm, dry conditions are expected Thursday.
- Long range models are hinting that thunderstorm chances return
  Friday, there is a chance that a few storms could be
  considered strong to severe.
- Models have been consistent that hot conditions are favorable
  late week into early next week.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

With a ridging building to our south and elongated trough over
central Canada, zonal flow will advance warm conditions over the
Midwest into the region. Confidence is high that upper-80s
to near 90s will be observed at observation sites across the
region. Minus the heat index values in the low-90s for portions
of Ohio, no hazardous weather is expect Thursday.

Trough advancement out of the north will return the chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. Several
runs of the long range models suggest convection may be
organized along the cold front. Probability of organized
convection (500J/kg and 30kts of effective shear) is 20% to
40% Friday evening with this noted disturbance.

Numerous long range models have been consistent that a ridge
axis will build across the CONUS and return warm, moist
conditions to the region. Heat impacts will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mid-level trough axis and weak front are currently swinging
across the Upper Ohio Valley. MVFR ceilings are mainly confined
to BVI/FKL/DUJ, downwind of Lake Erie. Expect restrictions to
remain in this general vicinity through the remainder of the
afternoon, and NBM MVFR probabilities generally align with this
thinking, with values 50 percent or greater remaining north of
PIT. Non-impactful sprinkles are possible at any TAF site, with
any slightly stouter showers confined to near MGW, where some
modest instability has built up. Northwest wind at around 10
knots may gust to 15 in spots this afternoon.

Expect clouds to scatter out this evening and overnight behind
the front as surface high pressure starts to build in. Given the
approaching cool air mass, diminishing wind, and relatively
warm rivers, some patches of mainly valley-based fog are
possible. NBM restriction probabilities favor locations
southeast of PIT overnight, as well as to the north as a
secondary maximum. Followed this thinking with MVFR mist at
FKL/DUJ/LBE and IFR fog at MGW for now; these forecasts will
likely need adjustment as cloud trends become more apparent.

Any fog should lift by 13Z Tuesday morning, with at least
scattered cumulus developing during the late morning/midday
hours. Northwest wind will generally remain light at under 10
knots.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected under building high pressure Tuesday
through Thursday. Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return
Thursday night and Friday with another passing disturbance.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...CL