469
FXUS61 KPHI 022038
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
438 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system approaches for tonight into Monday. High pressure
moves in on Monday Night remaining in control through early
Wednesday. An upper level low then will move into the Great
Lakes, keeping things unsettled into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weakening shortwave approaches late this afternoon through
tonight, rotating around the backside of an upper level low over the
north Atlantic. This will bring some scattered showers and perhaps a
garden-variety rumble of thunder, but nothing to write home about.
Chances for showers will begin in our western zones around sunset
with rain chances increasing to around 30-50% for most of the area
after midnight, except a bit higher (around 60 percent) over
portions of Delmarva and far southern NJ, where the best chance for
thunderstorms overnight are also located. Expect lows mostly in the
mid 60s.

A few lingering showers and an isolated thunderstorm across southern
NJ and southern Delmarva will clear out Monday morning with a brief
dry period for most before another shortwave pivoting around an
offshore upper low swings down across the region. Skies are expected
to be partly sunny throughout the morning hours and into the early
afternoon for much of the region, allowing for modest
destabilization ahead of this shortwave. Hi res guidance shows
MUCAPE values around the 1000J/kg range by the afternoon. With dew
points in the 60s, the ingredients are there for a few scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid afternoon. The severe
potential with these storms, however, will remain on the low end
with deep layer shear being rather lackluster in the afternoon. With
PWAT values in the 1-1.5 inch range, a few good downpours may be
possible with a stronger storm, but any flooding concerns will be
very localized and brief. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We dry out Monday Night through Tuesday as high pressure nudges in
from the north. With the high positioned just offshore, an onshore
flow will develop which will result in temperatures in the low to
mid 70s near the coast, with upper 70s/low 80s elsewhere. Tuesday
Night should be dry, though the high begins to retreat offshore.
Clouds will increase through the night as the next system
approaches. Lows will drop into the upper 50s/low 60s.

A shortwave approaches for Wednesday ahead of a large upper level
low swinging down from Canada. This will result in some showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving through, primarily in the afternoon
and evening. Looking at some of the ensembles and deterministic
guidance, there really isn`t a strong signal for any severe weather
as instability looks meager. The same goes for any shear. Thinking
the day will be mainly cloudy, with some periods of rain with some
rumbles of thunder mixed in. Temperatures will be in the upper
70s/low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term period will be marked by unsettled weather due to a closed
low moving into the Great Lakes region and meandering through the
weekend. This will result in numerous shortwaves rounding the base
of the closed low and moving towards our region with several
associated frontal systems passing through and an unsettled end of
the week and weekend.

The strongest shortwave looks to approach on Thursday, with an
associated cold front moving through sometime late in the week. Both
the 00z and 12z guidance continues to speed up the timing of the
initial from to come through more towards Thursday morning. This
would limit the severe potential, compared to if the front come
through later in the day. Overall, the signal for severe weather
isn`t overly strong given the instability currently forecast does
not look that impressive. Out ahead of the front, widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms look to develop. Wednesday Night/Thursday
time frame has the highest rain chances (around 60-70%). Outside of
that window, generally expecting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/early evening timeframe of
Friday through Sunday. PoPs for those days are only around 20-40%,
so it is fair to call it unsettled but not a total washout as the
upper level hangs around.

Temperatures will hover near or perhaps a touch below normal for
early June for the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR with increasing mid-high level
clouds. Some showers may arrive across RDG/ABE around the 23Z-00Z
timeframe. Southwest winds 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...Clouds lowering but remaining VFR through at least the
evening. Some restrictions possible overnight as some showers move
in along with lower cigs and the potential for some patchy fog as
well. Winds generally SW around 5 knots or less. Moderate
confidence.

Monday... VFR much of the time. Chance (25%-40%) of a scattered
shower/tstm. Brief period of sub-VFR conditions possible with a
stronger storm. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday Night...Primarily VFR. Some patchy fog possible (20-30%) at
KACY/KMIV.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night...VFR. No significant weather.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR though showers/isolated thunderstorms
arriving late in the day could bring some restrictions.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Restrictions likely (70-80%) with
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms moving through.

Thursday Night through Friday...Conditions should lift back to VFR
at some point but lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms could
result in further restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Monday. S to SSW winds 10-15
kts may briefly gust up to 20 kts this evening before diminishing to
5-10 kts by Monday morning where they will linger through the rest
of the day. Seas 2-3 feet. A few showers and thunderstorms possible
tonight and Monday afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Fair
weather.

Wednesday Night through Thursday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%
chance) with gusts nearing 25 kt. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms likely.

Rip Currents...

A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for
Monday and Tuesday. While winds turn partially onshore for
Monday and then fully onshore for Tuesday, wind speeds will be
around 10 MPH, with continuing 1 to 2 foot waves and short to
medium period which keeps the overall risk for rip current
development low.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich
LONG TERM...Hoeflich
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL
MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich/MJL