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000
FXUS61 KPHI 290222
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
922 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough over New England will slowly push to the
north as east as high pressure builds through the weekend. High
pressure crests Sunday and begins to slide offshore Sunday as
low pressure makes a return by mid week. A series of weak
disturbances will slide along a stalled frontal boundary keeping
for forecast pattern rather unsettled next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Light snow showers and flurries have pretty much ended, and
dryer air with surface dewpoints falling into the single digits
up north and in the teens down south will spread into the
region during the overnight.

Lows tonight will fall into the teens for the N/W areas and
low/mid 20s for the Lehigh Valley and N NJ. For Delmarva and
metro Philadelphia, low will mostly be in the upper 20s. Winds
will relax a bit overnight, but still be mostly 5 to 10 mph
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure across the Mississippi Valley early Sat will begin to
move towards the Ohio Valley by afternoon. This will bring more cold
dry air across our area. Highs Sat will probably be a few degrees
colder than today (Friday). Some snow showers across the Great Lakes
and upstate NY will probably find their way into the Southern
Poconos with the upper winds turning more NW ahead of the
approaching high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level closed low over New England will finally start to
push east Saturday evening allow for the center high pressure to drift
east during the day on Sunday. This should set up for a pleasant day
on Sunday even with temps sitting in the mid 40s across the region.


High pressure begins to drift offshore Sunday evening as an upper
level low tracks through southern Canada eventually stalling a frontal
boundary across the eastern CONUS. There will be several waves of
low pressure that ride along that boundary through next week however
with the lack of significant forcing, the model spread on timing is
frankly all over the place. Thus I`ve opted for continuity in the
forecast in keeping the mention of chances for rain daily from Monday
night onwards through the middle of next week although I wouldn`t
single any day out as a washout.

Temps will be warming through the middle of the week with mid 60s on
Wednesday with lows doing much of the same warming through the middle
of the week peaking Tuesday night in the mid to upper 40s. A cold
front finally presses through Wednesday evening and we return to
more normal temps to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Low clouds (050-060) will decrease this evening
leaving only some transient high clouds overnight. W winds 10-15
kts decreasing late. Some gusts around 20 kts during the
evening are possible.

Saturday...VFR. Mostly clear early then more daytime CU/SC will
probably develop a CIG at many sites by 14Z/15Z. Gusty winds resume
with W winds around 15 kts with G 25 kts at times.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Sunday night...VFR conditions expected.
Northwesterly winds 10 to 20 kt on Saturday becoming westerly 5 to
15 kt on Sunday. Moderate Confidence.

Monday through Tuesday...Beginning Monday afternoon, there is a
chance for periods of MVFR or even IFR conditions as rain moves into
the region. Moderate confidence that all TAF sites will see rain,
but low confidence if this will translate to a prolonged period of
MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions on tap through the overnight.

On Saturday, winds and seas will increase again. SCA in effect
from Saturday morning through Saturday night. Fair weather is
expected for tonight and Saturday. Seas 3 to 5 ft mostly for the
ocean and 1 to 3 ft. on Del Bay.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: SCA expected with northwesterly wind gusts to 30 kt.
Wave heights generally 3 to 5 feet.

Sunday: SCA expected. Wind gusts to 25 kt. Wave heights up to 4
feet.

Sunday Night: SCA eventually relaxing to Sub-SCA. Wind gusts to 20
kt. Wave heights decreasing to below 5 feet overnight.

Monday: SCA conditions expected with southerly wind gusts to 20 kt.
Wave heights will be building to 6 feet. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: SCA conditions expected. Southerly wind gusts to 20
kt. Wave heights up to 6 feet. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday: SCA conditions possible with south southwesterly wind gusts
to 25 kt. Wave heights up to 4 feet. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: SCA Conditions possible. Wind gusts to 25 kt. Wave
heights up to 7 feet. Chance SHRA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Deal
Near Term...MPS/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Deal
Aviation...Deal/O`Hara
Marine...Deal/MPS/O`Hara