605
FXUS61 KPHI 021735
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
135 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather early today. A weak
system approaches tonight and remain into Monday. High pressure then
arrives for Monday night, remaining in control through early Wednesday.
An upper level low will move into the Great Lakes, keeping the
weather pattern unsettled into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure still remains in control across the region, but
continues to shift offshore this afternoon as it gives way to an
approaching shortwave that will impact us beginning early this
evening and into tonight. For the rest of the day today, expect
some filtered sunshine through a deck of high clouds in advance
of the next system. Southwest winds will generally be around 10
mph, with a few gusts up to 15 mph. High temperatures are
expected to again be in the low- mid 80s across most of the
region (cooler in the Poconos and at the shore). Latest high res
guidance does show some showers arriving across eastern PA late
afternoon and early evening.

A weakening shortwave approaches tonight, rotating around the
backside of an upper level low over the north Atlantic. This
will bring some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder but nothing to write home about. Chances for showers
will begin in our western zones around sunset with rain chances
increasing to around 30-50% for most of the area after midnight,
except a bit higher (around 60 percent) over portions of
Delmarva and far southern NJ. Expect lows mostly in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
After the nice weekend, some disturbed weather with very low impacts
will be around for the start of the week. Shortwave energy both from
a weakening Ohio Valley system and from an upper low offshore will
combine across the Middle Atlantic. Surface features will be diffuse
resulting in only scattered showers Monday and into the evening.
Pops will be just in the chance range with higher chances (30%-40%)
for SE PA, southern NJ and Delmarva. Pops will be about 10% lower
for Northern NJ, and the Lehigh Valley/Srn. Poconos areas. Clouds
will be more common across the area, but breaks, especially later
in the day, will bring temperatures up to the low 80s for many
areas.

The system departs Monday night leaving partly cloudy skies in its
wake. Patchy fog will develop overnight, especially in areas that
received any rain on Monday. Low will end up in the upper 50s across
the North/West areas and low 60s elsewhere.

For Tuesday, fair weather returns as the system from Monday weakens
while an upper ridge develops across the upper Ohio Valley and up
into western NY. A surface high across New England will keep dry and
cool air across our area as winds turn E/NE on its southern
periphery. Overall, sunny skies for most areas with some clouds
across the shore areas of NJ/DE. Cooler temps for shore areas too
with highs there in the 70s with low 80s expected for SE PA and up
across northern NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Plenty of changes to the upper air pattern across the U.S. this
period with the last of the weak upper ridge remaining across the
Middle Atlantic and Northeast Wednesday before exiting. Behind this,
a stronger flow aloft develops as low pressure across southern
Canada strengthens and moves towards the upper Great Lakes region.
This low then slows and remain across the lakes and southern Canada
into next weekend.

These features translate to a showery unsettled long term with
chances for showers most of the days. Thursday will have the
greatest chances for showers/tstms with likely pops in for that day.
This is associated with a cold front and upper energy which will
cross the area that day. Temperatures will not stray too far from
seasonal normal with readings perhaps a degree or two above normal
Wed./Thu. and a perhaps little below normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR with increasing mid-high
level clouds. Some showers may arrive across RDG/ABE around the
23Z-00Z timeframe. Southwest winds 5-10 knots. High confidence.

Tonight...Clouds lowering but remaining VFR through at least
the evening. Some restrictions possible overnight as some
showers move in along with lower cigs and the potential for some
patchy fog as well. Winds generally SW around 5 knots or less.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Monday... VFR much of the time. Low chance (20%-30%) of a scattered
shower/tstm.

Tuesday... VFR expected.

Wednesday... VFR most of the time. A couple scattered showers/tstms
possible. Low chance (20%-30%)

Thursday... Restrictions expected in widespread clouds and
showers/tstms (60%-70%).

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through tonight with fair weather.
Winds southwest around 10-15 knots with a few gusts up to 20
knots possible, particularly during the day today. Seas 2-3
feet.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday... No marine headlines expected.
No strong systems to affect the waters Mon-Wed but a couple
scattered showers/tstms possible Mon and Wed.

Thursday... A low pressure system and front will bring frequent
showers/tstms with near SCA gusts possible.

Rip Currents...

A LOW risk for the development of rip currents is in place for
today as winds will be southwesterly around 10 MPH with 1 to 2
foot breaking waves and a 5 to 7 second period. While winds turn
more onshore for Monday, wind speeds will be 10 MPH or less,
with continuing 1 to 2 foot waves and short to medium period.
The result will be another day of a LOW risk for the development
of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OHara
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara