Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
315 FXUS65 KPIH 230843 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 243 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .DISCUSSION... Things are looking rather quiet over the week ahead across eastern Idaho. In fact, the current forecast has no precip chances ANYWHERE in the forecast for the upcoming week. That`s rather unusual for late September but here we are. A shortwave is moving well to our north and east this morning across central and eastern Montana and this feature will have little impact on the region. An upper level ridge will quickly move overhead tomorrow and its effects will linger into the day Wednesday. Temperatures will climb above climo when this does with mid to upper 70s likely in the valleys on Tuesday increasing to low to mid 80s by the time we get into Wednesday. As the high departs to the east, the upper level jet looks to become more active across the Pacific NW and western Canada but too far north of our area to have much of an impact on sensible weather. H5 heights will lower some after the ridge departs so we should see a slight lowering of temperatures but they`ll still be on the warmer side of normal by a few degrees each day which equates to upper 70s to around 80 in the lower valleys through the weekend. As we get into late Sunday and into Monday, seeing some hints in the model guidance on perhaps a slight dip in the jet allowing an upper level trough to exert some influence on our region. Just how much of a dip remains to be but this feature could bring a bit of a cooldown and maybe some precip depending on how things play out. Considering this is a week away, a lot can (and likely will) change. McKaughan && .AVIATION... A few high clouds are the only aviation concern today. Winds will once again be light, 10 kts or less, through the period. As high pressure moves over the area late tonight and into Tuesday. Clouds will be even harder to come by with winds remaining light. In short, expect VFR conditions to prevail for awhile. McKaughan && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level ridge is strengthening over northern Great Basin after a very weak trough passed through southern Canada and Montana. This will bring cooler afternoon highs in the northern half, but the southern half of the forecast area is actually warming a little today, especially in the Southern Idaho dispatch center AoR. Meanwhile,humidity readings should be higher in the afternoon compared to Sun. From here through Wed, warming and drying will be the rule as the high continues to sit. On Wed Night/Thu there is a breakdown of this ridge as a low moves onshore from the WA-OR coast. This will cool things down and raise humidity, but little else. There is still no precipitation in sight through next Mon afternoon. Messick && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$