936
FNUS75 KPSR 221505
FWSPSR

Spot Forecast for Ghost...DFFM
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
805 AM MST Sat Jun 22 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 MST on June 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The increasing moisture across the region will lead to
increased thunderstorm chances (~30%) later this afternoon and
early evening. However, there is a high deal of uncertainty in the
overall storm development and coverage given the abundant cloud
cover currently in place. Nevertheless, even if storms do not
directly impact the area, gusty outflow winds mainly from the east
or northeast could be an issue with around a 50% chance of gusts
exceeding 35 mph. If storms do impact the area, they will be
capable of producing high rain rates, in excess of 1"/hr, which
could lead to flash flooding as well as pose a lightning risk.
The storm threat will exist into Sunday as well with the same
level of uncertainty in terms of overall development and
coverage. Outside of the storms, winds will follow the typical
diurnal tendencies with speeds generally remaining under 15
mph. With the increased moisture levels, MinRH values will remain
above 20% with good overnight recovery.

...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds...

Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found
in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
CWR.................18 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 101.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds this morning becoming
                    south-southwest 6-11 mph in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................15 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 83.
Max humidity........50-55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 103.
Min humidity........24-29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 11 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.

$$
Forecaster...GL
Requested by...IC Perrone
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416498.1/PSR
.DELDT 06/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL AIDCLOGISTICS@DFFM.AZ.GOV