505
FXUS65 KPUB 161747
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot today with many 100+ readings expected across the plains.

- Red Flag Warnings in effect where fuels are critical.

- Isolated strong storms along the KS border area later this
afternoon.

- Hot with critical fire weather conditions across the region on
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Currently...

A few isolated showers with some rumble of thunder were pushing
into KS across Kiowa county. Some showers also noted over
extreme southeast Baca county. Otherwise clear skies noted over
the region with ambient temps still in the mid 70s across the
far southeast plains at 2 Am, with mid 60s over most of the rest
of the plains. Valleys were in the 40s with 30s and 40s in the
mtns.

Today...

Main concern is the heat. With very warm air aloft advecting over
the region, ambient max temps today will rise into the 100s across a
good part of the plains, with the warmest temps (105ish) over
the lower Ark Rvr valley from roughly La Junta to the KS border.
Heat Advisories have been issued for the lower Ark Rvr valley
area, along with the urban areas of COS, PUB and Canon City.
Heat Advisories have also been issued for the mid ark rvr valley
in Fremont county.

With RH values at critical values, Red Flag conditions are
expected over a good part of the region. The Forest Service just
recently added a few more zones into the critical category, and
have issued a Red Flag Warning for these areas. Dry lightning
will be an issue in Baca county.

Along the KS border, A well mixed EML along with sufficient moisture
will allow for a isolated strong storms over this region. Strong
gusty winds along with Dry Lightning will be a concern.

Over the remainder of the region, it will be dry. It will be breezy
all areas today, with the windiest conditions in the mtns and San
Luis valley and along the KS border.

Tonight...

It is gonna be windy tonight east of the lee trough. The strongest
winds with the low level jet will generally be eat of a line from
KLHX to KTAD, and gusts up to 40 mph at the surface will be possible
during the early morning hours. Min temps will be warm tonight with
readings only reaching about 70 across teh windy areas on the plains
with 60s most other regions of the plains. Valleys should see mid
40s. Any thunder near the border should end prior to midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Models continue to be in good agreement with low ensemble
spreads through much of the extended period. The main concern
will be heat and fire weather conditions Monday and possibly
Tuesday. Frontal timing on Tuesday is still in question and will
determine temperatures and fire weather conditions.

Monday...hot temperatures are forecast to remain in place across
the region, with much of the Plains in the mid 90s to lower
100s. Records will once again be close, with Colorado Springs
and Pueblo within a couple of degrees. Southwesterly flow aloft
increases through the afternoon and will combine with already
very low humidity values to produce widespread fire weather
conditions. Added a few fire weather zones to the Fire Weather
Watch Monday based on the latest fuel guidance, however, even
those zones that are not currently in the watch should take
precautions to prevent fires given the heat, low humidities and
gusty winds. At this time, have kept the forecast dry, but a few
of the high-res CAM guidance does spit out a couple of isolated
cells near the Kansas border late in the afternoon and into the
evening. Currently thinking any development will be to the east
out of our area. But if a storm does develop, strong outflow
winds will be the main concern given the very dry conditions.

Tuesday...fire weather conditions and temperatures will be
highly dependent on the arrival of a cold front to the Plains.
The NAM and a few longer range high-res solutions are fast with
the front, having it arrive before noon. This would keep
temperatures cooler, and moisture behind the front would
limit most fire weather concerns. The GFS is by far the slowest
with the front, hanging it up on the Palmer Divide through the
afternoon before surging it south by late afternoon to early
evening. This slower frontal passage would allow for
temperatures to warm more than guidance would indicate, and
allow for breezy southwest winds across the region with elevated
fire weather concerns. We will continue to monitor the latest
trends in frontal timing and likely make adjustments to the
forecast. As for precipitation, showers and thunderstorms will
likely develop by mid afternoon across the Pikes Peak Region,
and fill in behind the front along the Eastern Mountains, and
spread into the Plains Tuesday night.

Wednesday into Thursday...flow is forecast to turn southerly
across southern Colorado for mid week, with moisture remaining
in place across the region. This will lead to widespread showers
and thunderstorms, initially developing over the higher terrain,
then spreading east across the Plains during the late afternoon
and overnight. Given the abundant moisture, thunderstorms will
likely be efficient rain producers and slow moving. SBCAPE
values look modest and shear weak, but a couple of storms may
become strong across the Plains. Temperatures will be cooler mid
week with 70s and 80s.

Friday through Sunday...upper level riding to our east is
forecast to build westward for late week into the weekend.
Embedded energy under the ridge and residual moisture will
likely lead to continued shower and thunderstorm development,
but coverage looks to diminish. Much will depend on track of the
individual energy and what moisture remains. Temperatures will
also be in the rise, with most areas into the 90s.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected this forecast
period. Lighter winds still in place at the terminals, but
expect this to quickly change as south to southwest winds/gusts
increase through the afternoon. Highest gusts will be in the mid
to upper 20 kt range at all sites this afternoon. PUB will
likely be light and variable or become more east southeast for a
couple of hours, before shifting to the south southwest by mid
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-221-
223>227-232-233-237.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ220-221-224>227-232-233-237.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ077-083>086-
089-093-097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ