Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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413 FXUS65 KPUB 241118 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 518 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures are expected across our plains today, with dry conditions prevailing across all areas. - Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions look to persist throughout the remainder of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Currently.. A very weak cool front is approaching from to our north, and is expect to push across our plains through the early morning hours. As of 2 AM, this feature is still draped across the Denver metro area. Temperatures across our plains are much warmer than they were at this time yesterday, with most locations still in the 50s. Temperatures and dewpoints are in the mid to upper 30s in the San Luis Valley, though with the increase in upper-level cloud cover we`re seeing this morning, the risk of fog development has decreased somewhat. Today and Tonight.. Overall, this morning`s weak and dry cool frontal passage doesn`t look to amount to much. Models are still bringing the front across our plains from north to south from around 4 AM through 7 AM, with just a few hours of northerly wind gusts to 20 mph as it`s pushing through. Winds look to slowly weaken and transition to a more easterly component by lunchtime. Temperatures this afternoon look to be near normal, and will likely be just a degree or two cooler than yesterday thanks to this morning`s frontal passage. This will mean highs in the 70s to low 80s over the plains, with low to mid 70s for mountain valleys, and 60s for higher terrain locations. Though drier conditions are likely, with humidity values falling down into the 20% range, critical fire weather conditions are not expected today thanks to weaker winds through the driest part of the afternoon. We remain in northerly flow aloft as ridging begins to build in from our west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 352 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Wednesday Onwards.. Our extended forecast will be characterized by above normal temperatures and dry conditions, as a blocking pattern remains in place over our region. Models have been consistent with bringing in a low across the midwest that looks to swing south and sit somewhere over the Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma region, where it eventually begins to interact with a tropical system later in the period. This setup will keep high pressure in place over Colorado, allowing for strong subsidence and warming for the next several days. Apart from one or two small chances at shortwave energy and potential mountain thunderstorms, precipitation is not expected from Wednesday onwards through the weekend. Temperatures look to climb well into the 80s every afternoon on the plains under mostly sunny skies. Though dry conditions are likely, critical fire weather will not be likely thanks to weak and disorganized wind patterns under the ridge. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 517 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. A weak cool frontal boundary is passing through our plains early this morning, bringing northerly wind gusts to around 25kt to both KCOS and KPUB. Northerly winds look to persist through the morning, with a slow transition the east winds by early afternoon. Mid and upper-level clouds are expected through the first half of the period, with gradual clearing by the end of today. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...EHR