078
FXUS62 KRAH 300711
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will remain locked in over central NC this
weekend. A cold front will push through the area tonight into
Monday. Post-frontal high pressure will extend into the southeast
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through today for all but the
Northwest Piedmont and part of the Southern Piedmont in central
NC.

Marginal to Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
the evening.

Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall, mainly eastern Piedmont,
Sandhills, and Coastal Plain.

The main synoptic front was located just to our NW early this
morning. Pre-frontal conditions were very warm and humid, with
temperatures still in the 78-83 range with dew points in the 70s at
300 AM. The latest satellite and surface data indicated areas of mid
level cloudiness over the region. Showers and storms were ongoing
along the pre-frontal trough over KY to western VA, with isolated
storms over far western NC. It will be later today before our chance
comes.

The heat advisory runs through 00z/this evening. Early morning
temperatures will start around 80. There will be some cloudiness but
at least partly sunny skies will prevail mid to late morning into
the early afternoon. This will allow temperatures to soar into the
lower to mid 90s. Heat index values of 105-109 are still anticipated
in the advisory area, with 100-104 in the NW. Cooling relief should
come from scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon into
the evening.

A pre-frontal trough and outflow boundaries will lead convective
development early afternoon. It will become unstable with MLCapes
around 2000-2500 j/kg this afternoon. Thunderstorm clusters are
expected with scattered to numerous coverage from mid through late
afternoon, with activity shifting SE into the Coastal Plain by early
evening. CAMS continue to suggest the potential for additional
storms on the trailing cold front arriving from the north this
evening, mainly from Raleigh east and south. There is a slight risk
north and marginal risk south of mainly downburst wind. The showers
and storms will diminish later tonight in the east and south, it
will remain cloudy over much of the Piedmont with areas of fog
possible. Lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The marginal risk of excessive rainfall is mainly for areas along
and east of US-1 where there is the potential for a couple of rounds
of slow moving thunderstorms with locally 2+ inches. Otherwise, the
QFP is expected to be 0.50 to 1 inch for much of the region.

&&


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...

Relief from the heat and humidity!

The cold front will be SE of central NC during the morning and this
will allow cooler and drier air to overspread the region courtesy of
the Great Lake surface high pressure. There will be some lingering
shower chances in the far SE early and some low stratus/fog in the
morning. Expect partly sunny skies in the afternoon and much cooler.
Highs only in the lower to mid 80s, with upper 70s north. Mostly
clear and cool conditions are expected Monday night with lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 222 AM Sunday...

Aloft, the mid-level anticyclone will once again build into the
region from the west, sitting over the TN Valley/Deep South Tue and
Wed. A series of northern stream s/w disturbances will track
eastward from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes/OH Valley
from Tue through Sat, with each successive s/w slowly suppressing
the high southward. However, the high should generally remain over
the Deep South and Southeast US through Sat. At the surface, as the
high moves eastward through the Northeast/northern mid-Atlantic
Tue/Tue night, it will continue ridging southward into the area.
Once the high moves out over the Atlantic on Wed the ridge will also
shift east out of the area, with a lee trough developing Wed night
and remaining in place through Sat. Expect swly flow and the
advection of warm, moist air into the area to take over once again.
Temperatures may actually be near to slightly below normal Tue, but
once the warm advection commences on Wed, they will quickly rise
back above near/slightly above normal Wed and be well above normal
by the end of the week. As for rainfall, as the mid-level ridge
gradually gets suppressed south and the lee trough strengthens, some
diurnally driven convection will be possible Thu, but more likely
Fri and Sat aft/eve. Latest forecast heat index values do creep back
to around 105 again in a few spots on Thu. Heat index values of 105
to 109 becoming greater in coverage (much of central NC) for Fri and
Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Generally VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the morning,
but some guidance shows potential for low stratus early this morning
around KFAY. Sunday afternoon about 17z to 00z, scattered to
possibly numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front
and move E/SE from the NW Piedmont into the Coastal Plain. Brief
gusty winds, heavy rain and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities are
possible with any storm. Outside of storms, winds will generally be
around 10-15 kts, veering slightly from southerly this morning
to more southwesterly today.

Beyond 00z-06z Monday: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push east through central NC into the evening hours. A few storms
could be strong to locally severe.

A secondary surge of weaker showers/storms with associated sub-VFR
ceilings and visibilities will be possible along the passing cold
front late tonight in the east.

VFR conditions should return Tuesday and Wednesday as dry high
pressure extends into central NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ008>011-024>028-
040>043-075>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Badgett/Danco