824
FXUS62 KRAH 131753 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
153 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will continue to drift east and move off the
mid-Atlantic coast. An area of low pressure will move off the east
coast of Florida this evening and then lift northeast off the mid-
Atlantic coast through late Friday. A cold front will then slide
southward into the area Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

As the surface high slips offshore, associated E-SELY low level flow
into the area will lead to warming temps and building humidity
levels.  Expect another round of scattered to occasionally broken
afternoon stratocumulus as highs today range from mid 80s north,
upper 80s central area, to around 90 across the southern, which is
about 1 to 4 degrees above average.

Otherwise, the total air column across central NC remains rather dry
with below PW values well below normal. This dry air coupled with
the lingering mid level cap will squash any weak diurnally driven
lift and showers that tries to develop over interior NC.

The mid and high clouds associated with the extremely weak shortwave
moving through the SE US and developing offshore coastal low will
pass east of the area this evening , leaving behind mostly clear
skies. However,  probabilistic guidance indicates a low end chance
for some fog/stratus across the far eastern/coastal plain counties
towards sunrise. Lows similar to this past morning, ranging from
lower 60s north,  to mid/upper 60s central and southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 153 PM Thursday...

Although trending a degree or two cooler, Friday is still expected
to be warm across the region. Record temperatures should not be an
issue as highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s, where the
daily high temperature record at GSO is 98, 97 at RDU, and 100 at
FAY. Everyone should take cation when working outside Friday and
stay hydrated. While the weak high pressure will be shifting
northeast and offshore, the strengthening low pressure system off
the coast is expected to stay offshore and move NE through Saturday
morning. Although the majority of the precipitation will stay
offshore, rip currents could still be a hazard. While the low is
moving along the coast, a cold front is expected to move across the
region beginning Friday afternoon and reaching the coast by Saturday
morning. While most ensembles shows the front to be dry, a few
outlines do show an isolated shower or storm develop Friday
afternoon over the Triad and Triangle regions. While CAPE is
expected to be less than 100 J/kg, Lapse rates will also be
unimpressive. Any shower that does develop is expected to pass
quickly. Have kept a 15-20% chance PoP in portions of the Northern
Piedmont as Hi-Res models suggest that is where the best chance (if
any) for showers and storms to pop up. Otherwise, as the front
passes the region Saturday morning lows will be muggy in in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 AM Thursday...

NNE flow behind the cold frontal passage on Friday night and
Saturday morning will advect slightly cooler and drier air into
central NC. This will provide some relief from the heat and humidity
this weekend, but it will still be hot and slightly warmer than
normal. Forecast highs both Saturday and Sunday are upper-80s to
lower-90s, with lows generally in the 60s. Dew points will only be
in the mid-50s to lower-60s, aided by NW downsloping flow aloft
around a mid/upper ridge that will be over the Deep South. If the
progression of the cold front is slow enough, a small minority of
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble members indicate a shower or storm can`t
be ruled out in the extreme SE (mainly southern Sampson County) on
Saturday afternoon and evening, so continue slight chance POPs
there. But even this may be overdone as the forecast keeps trending
drier.

The anomalous mid/upper ridge will continue to strengthen through
the rest of the period, from 592 dam to possibly as much as 600 dam
by midweek if the 00z ECMWF is to be believed. The ridge will
initially centered to our west over the southern Appalachians on
Sunday/Monday before moving north to PA/Upstate NY and the Lower
Great Lakes by Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will move
off the New England coast on Sunday and linger in the western
Atlantic into midweek, shifting the low-level flow over central NC
to a SE direction. This will bring increased clouds, particularly in
the west. Upslope showers and storms also may develop over the
Mountains, and while they should largely stay to our west, ensemble
probabilities indicate a few could drift into our far W or NW
counties. Thus continue slight chance POPs there each afternoon from
Sunday through Wednesday. Otherwise and elsewhere, dry air and
subsidence from the mid/upper ridge should preclude any convective
development. The building ridge will also help temperatures increase
once again, with forecast highs from Monday through Wednesday mostly
in the lower-90s and forecast lows in the upper-60s to lower-70s.
Models agree there will be enough mixing to keep dew points from
getting too oppressive (generally in the 60s), but heat indices will
still peak in the lower-to-mid-90s each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Thursday...

Dry VFR conditions are expected through the period. The possible
exception could be at KRWI, where probabilistic guidance indicates a
very low end chance for some fog/stratus across the far
eastern/coastal plain counties towards sunrise Friday morning. Winds
will remain light through the period.

Outlook: Isolated showers are possible late Friday as a moisture
starved cold front moves through the region. Otherwise, generally
dry weather is e expected. Some patchy late night/early morning fog
or stratus is possible across mainly southern and eastern locations
into the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CBL/BLAES