Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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184 FXUS62 KRAH 010650 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 250 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure across the area will move offshore late today and tonight. The high pressure will move out into the western Atlantic by Monday, bringing warmer and more humid air, along with mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across the area through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 AM Saturday... Overview: Canadian high pressure centered over the area this morning will slide east and offshore during the afternoon. Aloft, amplified ridging will quickly pace eastward across the area today as a dampening mid-level shortwave trough over the MS Valley progresses eastward into the Ohio and Tn Valleys. Today: While the cP airmass in place will begin to moderate under the influence of light southerly return flow, temperatures will remain slightly below normal for the 1st day of meteorological summer. Underneath thickening cirrus, Highs 80 to 85 with dewpoints/humidity still quite comfortable for this time of year. Tonight: Upper ridge axis will move offshore during the evening. Modest moisture transport associated with the shortwave trough moving east into the Appalachians will spread east into the western portions of the state. The increasing moisture coupled with lift from preceding MCVs/convectively-generated vorticity axis could lead to some spotty light rain over the western Piedmont towards daybreak. Elsewhere, it should remain dry with multi-layered cloudiness developing across the area. Not as cool. Lows 55 to 60. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Saturday... The aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough will continue to dampen/weaken as it moves east through the southern and mid-Atlantic states through the period. At the surface, a weak low pressure trough develops along the lee of the mountains. Weak and difficult to resolve perturbations may prove to be the primary drivers for lift and associated isolated to widely scattered weak convection Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. Daytime heating within the seasonably moist airmass should lead to weak buoyancy, mainly across the NW Piedmont, which is where the highest PoPs will be retained Sunday afternoon/evening. Then overnight, while the deepest moisture gradually shift eastward towards eastern/coastal NC, model guidance suggests an isolated/pop up shower is possible just about anywhere. Highs ranging from upper 70s/near 80 NW to mid 80s SE. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 231 PM Friday... A series of short wave troughs are forecast by models to move across our region through much of the period. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will be centered to our east offshore of Cape Fear at the start of the period and will generally remain to our east during the period, with sw low level flow persisting over the Carolinas and promoting gradual WAA and increasing PWAT through the week. The Piedmont trough will develop each day, with the next substantial sfc front approaching and moving through late Thursday when a deeper upper trough begins to develop over the Great Lakes region. The sensible weather as a result of the above pattern will feature gradually increasing temps and humidity each day as sw low level flow persists. Sunday will be the last of the near-normal temp days for the period, with highs in the mid 80s, but then highs a few deg either side of 90 will be possible each day the rest of the week. Most of our CWA should remain dry on Sunday, with the exception of our western Piedmont zones where a few isold showers/tstms are possible. Then for the remainder of the week, well have mainly diurnal aoa-climo PoPs Monday through Wednesday, then the highest PoPs late Thursday in response to the approaching front. The front should be to our east by Friday morning, with dry weather for the rest of Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 AM Saturday... There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Cirrus will thicken up and will become BKN by the late afternoon and evening. Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly 5- 10 mph later today. Outlook: Southerly moisture advection associated with a shortwave trough moving into the region will lead to a chance of showers Sunday into Sunday night and associated sub-VFR restrictions, mainly at KINT and KGSO. Mainly diurnal showers/storms could result in brief periods of sub-VFR restrictions Monday through Wednesday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...np AVIATION...CBL