Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 152341

National Weather Service Raleigh NC
745 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

Surface high pressure will meander across the southern mid-Atlantic
states through late next week, which will keep a warm front north
and west of the area. Otherwise, a series of weak upper level
disturbances will traverse the Carolinas through early next week.


As of 300 PM Saturday...

Surface high centered over the Carolinas will weaken as the parent
high center drifts east near the southern mid-Atlantic coast. This
will allow a warm front to approach our western door step tonight,
but should remain just west of the mountains.

Clouds will be on the increase from the west overnight as upper
level impulses, embedded in the westerly flow aloft, overspread the
area within a WAA regime aloft. Additionally, an isolated shower
and/or sprinkles will be possible across the far NW Piedmont around
daybreak Sunday. Lows will be mostly in the lower 50s tonight,
except for some mid to upper 40s across the NE where latest arrival
of cloud cover will allow for better/longer radiational cooling.


As of 300 PM Saturday...

Though not as strong as the deep zone of warm air advection
currently fueling the area of showers in the over the mid MS Valley
and Great Lakes region, weak upper disturbances traversing the area
will spur modest warming and moistening aloft. Given the stable
airmass in place, resultant lift will support extensive mid-level
ceilings across the area, with measurable rain chances remaining
very limited--with predominately sprinkles and possibly an isolated
shower or two across the far northern zones.

The broken/overcast cloud cover across the northern counties will
temper afternoon highs quite a bit, while partly sunny skies across
southern portions should result in realization of full sun
thicknesses; highers ranging from lower 70 NW to around 80 SE. Lows
Sunday night in the 50s.


As of 240 PM Saturday...

Upper flow out of the northwest will allow an impulse to move over
the Carolinas Monday, bringing a chance of rain to the northern two-
thirds of the forecast area. An ever weaker impulse could bring just
a slight chance of showers west of US 1 on Tuesday, but after that
upper level heights will build and the weather will be dry, with the
trough eventually developing a high pressure center over Georgia by
late Friday. Highs will rise 3-5 days each day, beginning with highs
in the 70s on Monday before eventually rising to the upper 80s and
lower 90s on Saturday.


As of 745 PM Saturday...

High confidence in continued VFR conditions across central NC,
although clouds will steadily increase tonight through Sun,
especially over the NW (GSO/INT). But cloud bases will hold above
5kft AGL. Only isolated sprinkles or light showers are expected,
with no impact to vsbys. Surface winds will be light and variable
through Sun evening.

Looking beyond 00z Mon, clouds will continue to increase through Sun
night, trending to bkn/ovc at all sites through Mon, although VFR
cigs should persist. Sub-VFR conditions are possible Mon night into
early Tue morning, and again Tue night into Wed morning, with a
chance of showers/storms Mon afternoon/Mon night mainly N
(GSO/INT/RDU/RWI) and Tue afternoon mainly at INT/GSO. VFR
conditions are then likely Wed/Thu with deep dry and warm air
building over the region. -GIH





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