208
FXUS65 KREV 250752
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1252 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Unseasonably warm and dry with high temperatures running as
  much as 10 degrees above average through the weekend.

* Breezy southwest winds will bring near critical fire weather
  conditions across northeast CA and northwest NV this afternoon.

* Lighter winds return Thursday and Friday with another round of
  breezy southwest winds possible Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* A quiet pattern over the next 7 days as weather systems track
  to our north and above normal heights keep temperatures on the
  warm side. Occasional increases in southwest breezes today and
  again Saturday as weak fronts track across the northern Great
  Basin.

* Southwest breezes will pick up over the ridges this morning and
  mix down late morning into the afternoon. Surface gusts
  generally 25-30 mph (locally to 35 mph north of I-80) may
  produce some chop on area lakes. Ridge winds will increase too
  with gusts approaching 60 mph by late afternoon into the evening
  hours as 700 MB winds increase to 25-30 kts.

* This front is not going to have much impact on temperatures as
  positive height anomalies only briefly retreat as a trough moves
  through the PacNW today. 500 MB height anomalies near +90 DAM
  return late Thursday through the weekend with blended guidance
  showing afternoon highs 7-10 degrees above average and minimal
  spread. So high confidence in the unseasonably warm and dry
  weather persisting. There may be bump in SW winds again Saturday
  as another weak front passes.

* Latest ensemble clusters (more than just a few ensemble members,
  roughly 1/4 of them) bring a potentially deeper trough to the
  region the first week of October. This would result in a breezy
  and cooler temperatures. Spread is definitely higher late next
  week lending to low confidence, but it is worth a mention.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

Increased SW breezes today, especially along and north of Hwy 50,
as a dry front tracks across the northern Great Basin. FL100 winds
25-30 kts today will persist into the early morning hours
Thursday, resulting in some light-moderate turbulence. SW surface
winds 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts for area terminals this
afternoon/early evening. Lighter winds return Thursday-Friday
with VFR conditions.

Hohmann

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

* Southwest breezes return this afternoon/evening with strongest
  winds across northeast CA and northwest NV, extending down along
  the northern Sierra Front. Sustained winds 15-20 mph with gusts
  25-35 mph will be common.

* Conditions will remain dry with limited overnight recoveries,
  especially across western NV mid-slopes. Afternoon RH values
  less than 15% will be confined mainly to the Basin and Range
  with levels closer to 15-20% where winds will be strongest.
  Using 15% and gusts to 30 mph, critical fire weather conditions
  will be isolated and generally lasting 1-3 hours. However, if
  you adjust the RH up just a few to 18%, probabilities increase
  to 80% across fire zones 270-278-458.

* We will not be issuing any warnings, but be aware that near
  critical fire weather conditions will be present this afternoon.
  We will continue to headline the breezy and dry conditions in
  the fire weather forecast.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$