Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
244 FXUS65 KREV 260947 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 247 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Moisture decreases as west to northwest winds bring drier air into the region through Thursday. Critical fire conditions today, with choppy lakes as well. * Southwest winds pick up again Saturday and Sunday with dry air in place. Another round of rough lake waters and heightened fire weather concerns. * Signals for 4th of July are pointing towards warming temperatures, typical afternoon breezes and very low chances for any storms. && .DISCUSSION... * Overnight radar depicts showers across Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe counties beginning to taper and move eastward. Water vapor imagery on GOES-18 shows an intrusion of upper to mid-level drier air working into the region as the monsoonal moisture from yesterday moves over the Great Basin. A neutrally tilted trough swinging toward the Pacific Northwest will help sweep the moisture eastward, leaving us with a drier airmass for today, and especially by Thursday. This incoming low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds today that will become northwesterly for Thursday. For today, we see a 40-70% chance for wind gusts to exceed 35 mph over west- central Nevada which brings critical fire weather conditions to the area. Lakes will also be choppy today, prompting Lake Wind Advisories for area lakes in western Nevada. * Another trough approaches for the weekend, bringing with it another round of breezy west-southwest winds, which will reintroduce elevated fire weather concerns as well as choppy lake waters. * A ridge builds back over the West for the first week of July, with a return to warming temperatures and low chances for storms. There are signals for yet another weekend trough to visit, but confidence is low due to ensemble discrepancies. HRICH && .AVIATION... * West-southwest winds will increase this morning across western Nevada, bringing gusts of 25-35 kts this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions for today`s flights outside of isolated storms near the White Mts. * Thursday winds will become northwesterly, but gusts will be 25-30 kts over western Nevada valleys. HRICH && .FIRE WEATHER... * Yesterday`s round of convection produced lightning with wet storms over Mineral and Churchill counties. Elsewhere, in Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe counties, faster moving, but isolated thunderstorms also produced lightning that was in relatively drier storms. These may have created new fire starts that may holdover and become influenced by today`s incoming west-southwesterly breezes. * Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the desert areas of northeast CA, east of US-395, in addition to portions of northwestern Nevada today. * While minimum RH values will be a bit higher than the "traditional" Red Flag 15% mark, given the state of the lower- elevation fine fuels and the anticipated 35-45 mph WSW wind gusts, any new fire starts would easily carry. The other concern would be the potential for new ignitions from thunderstorms yesterday. * Winds to turn NW Thursday behind a cold front with gusts of 20-30 mph across the area and minimum RH values in the 8-12% range outside of the forests. Localized critical conditions are once again expected. -Dawn/HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420. Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ003-004. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-458. CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278. && $$