228
FXUS65 KRIW 230824
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
224 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry weather intensifies today and tomorrow. Highs may
  near 95-100 degrees in parts of the CWA by Sunday.

- Afternoon showers today and Monday may create strong gusty
  outflow winds with little to no rain reaching the surface.

- The lack of rainfall and hot/dry weather may create concerning
  fire weather conditions through the first half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Yesterday saw sunny and warm conditions return to the Cowboy State.
This weather will continue and only intensify over the next few days
as temperatures increase. While the overall weather looks to remain
fairly quiet there are some concerns. The main concern heading into
the start of the week will be elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions.

The weekend comes to an end with hot and dry conditions, as a potent
area of high pressure builds back into the region. Today will be hot
and breezy, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten due to a
shortwave moving to the north of the region. Warm advection will aid
in producing some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far.
Models are showing parts of Natrona and Johnson Counties along with
the Wind River Basin having a (40-70%) chance of seeing 95 or higher
temperatures. Highs in parts of the Bighorn Basin on Sunday have a
(20-50%) chance of nearing or exceeding the century mark. One thing
that may limit the extent of the warming is the possibility of
afternoon virga showers developing. Some CAM`s have recently shown
showers developing Sunday afternoon but with it being so dry and hot
throughout the atmosphere precipitation will struggle to reach the
surface. Due to the large difference between dewpoints and
temperatures strong gusty outflow winds are possible with any
showers. Some CAM`s are showing outflow gusts of 30-40 mph in parts
of the southern and central CWA. Elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will likely develop Sunday and continue through
much of the upcoming week. Winds will be breezy at times during the
afternoon Sunday with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. The combination of
these breezy winds, above normal temperatures, and low RH values
will create concerns regarding fire development. The warm, dry, and
breezy weather continues into Monday. Temperatures will again reach
the mid to upper 90s in areas east of the Divide and in the mid to
upper 80s west of the Divide. Winds increase on Monday with gusts of
25 to 35 mph at times across much of the CWA. Virga showers will
again be possible during the afternoon with strong gusty outflow
winds being the main concern. Critical fire weather conditions are
likely to continue on Monday due to the above normal temperatures,
low RH values, and gusty winds.

Warm and dry weather continues through the first half of the week.
Some models indicate the possibility for a potent trough to move
through the region by Thursday. This trough looks to push out the
area of high pressure that is bringing these warm and dry conditions
to the CWA. One thing to monitor over the next few days will be the
potential for showers and thunderstorms as the trough moves into the
region by the second half of the week. The setup looks very similar
to last Friday where much of the CWA saw showers and thunderstorms
move through bringing some much needed rain. PWAT values are looking
above normal with this system so some areas may get some much needed
rain to end the week. Overall, the next few days are looking hot,
dry, and breezy across much of the CWA with intensifying fire
weather concerns. Fortunately, there may be some relief to the hot
and dry weather to end the week but uncertainty remains high at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SKC skies
and light winds will be in place through the first half of the
forecast. Winds will begin to increase through the morning for a
few locations, becoming widespread through the afternoon. Gusts
of 25 to 30 kt will be common, before diminishing after 00Z.
FEW- SCT CU will develop again through the afternoon as well,
becoming SKC again by 06Z Monday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSUs ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...LaVoie