076
FXUS65 KRIW 221716
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1116 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The overall weather pattern will begin to trend towards a
  warmer and drier one starting today.

- Hot and dry weather returns for the end of the weekend and
  through much of the upcoming week. Highs may near 95-100
  degrees in parts of the CWA by Sunday.

- The lack of rainfall and hot/dry weather may create concerning
  fire weather conditions through the end of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Some much needed rain fell across parts of central and southern
Wyoming yesterday. Unfortunately, chances for any additional
precipitation in the upcoming week look extremely slim. Dry and hot
weather look to return and prevail across the Cowboy state for much
of the upcoming week.

The weekend starts pleasant with seasonable temperatures and mostly
clear skies, as a potent area of high pressure builds back into the
region. Sunday will be hot and breezy, as the pressure gradient
begins to tighten due to a shortwave moving to the north of the
region. Warm advection will aid in producing some of the warmest
temperatures of the year so far. Models are showing parts of Natrona
and Johnson Counties along with the Wind River Basin having a (40-
70%) chance of seeing 95 or higher temperatures. Highs in parts of
the Bighorn Basin on Sunday have a (20-50%) chance of nearing or
exceeding the century mark. One thing that may limit the extent of
the warming is the possibility of afternoon virga showers
developing. Some CAM`s have recently shown showers developing Sunday
afternoon but with it being so dry and hot throughout the atmosphere
precipitation will struggle to reach the surface. Elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions will likely develop Sunday and
continue through much of the upcoming week. Winds will be breezy at
times during the afternoon Sunday with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. The
combination of these breezy winds, above normal temperatures, and
low RH values will create concerns regarding fire development. The
warm, dry, and breezy weather continues into Monday. Temperatures
will again reach the mid to upper 90s in areas east of the Divide
and in the mid to upper 80s west of the Divide. Winds increase on
Monday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times across much of the CWA.
Critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop by Monday due
to these stronger gusts.

The remainder of the week will see hot and dry weather persist
across the CWA. Elevated to near fire weather conditions are
expected to prevail through the week with winds being the only
limiting factor. This hot and dry weather is slightly concerning, as
looking at climate data, many places are currently seeing below
normal precipitation amounts for the month and year. The amount some
places are below normal will likely be too much to overcome in the
remaining days of June. If this hot and dry weather continues
through the remainder of the month and no relief in terms of
precipitation arrives, you can expect the green to quickly turn
brown by the time we reach July.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A light west to
northwest breeze will develop at most terminals this afternoon, with
gusts around 20 to 25kts. Have left the wind at KCOD as a TEMPO for
now, as there is low confidence in enough mixing to develop a
northwesterly wind there before the nocturnal northerly flow sets
back in, so gusty winds there this afternoon will be brief if the
occur at all (40% chance). Skies will remain mostly clear with
possibly a few fair weather cumulus developing this afternoon across
the region. This evening, winds will decrease to mostly light and
variable after 03Z and skies will remain mostly clear through the
night. A few terminals (KRKS and KCPR) should see west-
southwest winds start to increase again late in the period (70%
chance).

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSUs ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Hensley