Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
945 FXUS65 KRIW 090800 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 100 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and pleasant weather across much of the Cowboy State this weekend with some locations possibly seeing highs nearing 50 degrees. - Very scattered snow/rain showers are possible across far southeastern Natrona and Sweetwater Counties this morning. - Western mountain snow makes a return to end the weekend and is expected to periodically continue through much of the first half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 A rather quiet and pleasant start to the weekend is in store across much of the Cowboy State. Looking at IR imagery there is a very distinct large potent low pressure system moving across eastern Colorado. This system will miss much of our CWA with the far northern fringe bringing some scattered snow/rain showers to southeastern portions of Natrona and Sweetwater Counties this morning into the early afternoon. Impacts will be minimal with light snow/rain showers possible at times. However, one area to monitor will be across far southeastern Natrona County in the higher elevations of Casper Mountain. This area may see a brief period of freezing drizzle during the morning hours today. There is not much concern with this but it may create some slick spots in the area especially in the higher elevation areas. These brief showers will gradually clear out by the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to warm today with highs reaching the mid 40s west of the Divide and nearing or even exceeding 50 degrees in some locations east of the Divide. Sunday brings the chance for some precipitation across western parts of the state starting in the morning as a weak shortwave moves over the region. Impacts look very minor with light snow in the western mountains and light snow/rain in western valleys. There looks to be a brief lull in the action come Sunday night before more precipitation takes aim at western WY. Currently much of the state will see little to no impacts but it does look like western WY has the best chance of seeing more high elevation snow. This is due to predominately westerly and southwesterly flow developing across the region ahead of a deep trough that begins to move into the PACNW. This favorable flow will aid in producing accumulating snow across much of the western WY mountain ranges for the first half of the week. Snowfall will be periodic with heavy rounds of snow possible at times starting Monday afternoon lasting into Wednesday morning. Models are showing western slopes of the Teton, Absaroka, Wyoming, Salt, and Wind River Ranges having at least a 30-60% chance of seeing 6 or more inches of snow come Wednesday. The remainder of the state looks to be mostly dry with much of the moisture being confined to western WY. The one thing to monitor for areas east of the Divide will be strong gusty winds as the deep trough over the PACNW nears the area. Models are showing a greater than 30% chance of widespread wind gusts exceeding 30 mph at times starting late Monday through late Tuesday. The trough looks to make its way into the region by mid week with very low confidence in the forecast at this time as models have a loose grip on possible outcomes. The main thing to monitor will be just how far south or north the trough travels with the track greatly influencing impacts on our CWA. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 914 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for most through the period. KCPR is expected to see light precipitation beginning after 09Z or so, possibly falling as freezing drizzle toward sunrise. This will bring lowered ceilings and potential MVFR conditions, though confidence is not high on this. KJAC is again likely to see fog approach around sunrise, but confidence is similarly low for terminal impacts at this time. Otherwise, wind will remain on the lighter side at terminals, though KRKS will be the exception with gusts of 15 to 20 knots Saturday afternoon. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski AVIATION...Myers