Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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945
FXUS65 KRIW 090800
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
100 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant weather across much of the Cowboy State
  this weekend with some locations possibly seeing highs
  nearing 50 degrees.

- Very scattered snow/rain showers are possible across far southeastern
  Natrona and Sweetwater Counties this morning.

- Western mountain snow makes a return to end the weekend and is
  expected to periodically continue through much of the first
  half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024

A rather quiet and pleasant start to the weekend is in store across
much of the Cowboy State. Looking at IR imagery there is a very
distinct large potent low pressure system moving across eastern
Colorado. This system will miss much of our CWA with the far
northern fringe bringing some scattered snow/rain showers to
southeastern portions of Natrona and Sweetwater Counties this
morning into the early afternoon. Impacts will be minimal with light
snow/rain showers possible at times. However, one area to monitor
will be across far southeastern Natrona County in the higher
elevations of Casper Mountain. This area may see a brief period of
freezing drizzle during the morning hours today. There is not much
concern with this but it may create some slick spots in the area
especially in the higher elevation areas. These brief showers will
gradually clear out by the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to
warm today with highs reaching the mid 40s west of the Divide and
nearing or even exceeding 50 degrees in some locations east of the
Divide.

Sunday brings the chance for some precipitation across western parts
of the state starting in the morning as a weak shortwave moves over
the region. Impacts look very minor with light snow in the western
mountains and light snow/rain in western valleys. There looks to be
a brief lull in the action come Sunday night before more
precipitation takes aim at western WY. Currently much of the state
will see little to no impacts but it does look like western WY has
the best chance of seeing more high elevation snow. This is due to
predominately westerly and southwesterly flow developing across the
region ahead of a deep trough that begins to move into the PACNW.
This favorable flow will aid in producing accumulating snow across
much of the western WY mountain ranges for the first half of the
week. Snowfall will be periodic with heavy rounds of snow possible
at times starting Monday afternoon lasting into Wednesday morning.
Models are showing western slopes of the Teton, Absaroka, Wyoming,
Salt, and Wind River Ranges having at least a 30-60% chance of
seeing 6 or more inches of snow come Wednesday. The remainder of the
state looks to be mostly dry with much of the moisture being
confined to western WY. The one thing to monitor for areas east of
the Divide will be strong gusty winds as the deep trough over the
PACNW nears the area. Models are showing a greater than 30% chance
of widespread wind gusts exceeding 30 mph at times starting late
Monday through late Tuesday. The trough looks to make its way into
the region by mid week with very low confidence in the forecast at
this time as models have a loose grip on possible outcomes. The main
thing to monitor will be just how far south or north the trough
travels with the track greatly influencing impacts on our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 914 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for most through the period. KCPR is
expected to see light precipitation beginning after 09Z or so,
possibly falling as freezing drizzle toward sunrise. This will
bring lowered ceilings and potential MVFR conditions, though
confidence is not high on this. KJAC is again likely to see fog
approach around sunrise, but confidence is similarly low for
terminal impacts at this time. Otherwise, wind will remain on
the lighter side at terminals, though KRKS will be the exception
with gusts of 15 to 20 knots Saturday afternoon.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Myers