![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
539 FXUS65 KRIW 262248 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 448 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are possible today, though confidence on timing and location remains low as models differ. Everywhere has at least a small of chance of rain today, though. - Showers and thunderstorms possible again Saturday, starting mid-morning. Gusts up to around 50 mph are possible. - A drying and warming trend begins Sunday, and especially into the workweek. Fire weather concerns starting Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 The cold front that passed through yesterday has brought seasonal temperatures across the area today, with highs generally in the 80s, with low 90s for the warmer favored locations. The main story for today is scattered showers and thunderstorms, aided by the passage of a shortwave this afternoon. Models continue to be variable in their timing and coverage of storms this afternoon and evening. Would say there is at least a 15% chance of rain anywhere in the CWA today, though there will be many locations that do get a storm. Though some of this convection could come with locally heavy rain, (favored more for southern half of the area) gusty winds are the main threat. Gusts 30 to 40 mph should be common with any storms that develop, with gusts near 50 mph a real possibility. Some small hail is also possible with some of the stronger storms. Overall, support is not looking good for any widespread severe storms. Models are consistent in ending convection by midnight. Another shortwave moves through Saturday, this time in the morning. This should kick off showers and thunderstorms earlier than normal. Southwest Wyoming sees rain chances pick up after 5am MDT. These chances spread east-northeastward through the morning, with another day of widespread rain chances over the area for the afternoon. Like today, models are showing various locations, coverage, and timing of convection Saturday, so confidence is low on those aspects of the forecast. However, it will be another day where everywhere has at least a small chance of a storm. Gusts to 50 mph will be the main hazard of concern again. The recent HRRR has a few gusts over 50 mph as well. A ridge starts to build in from the south Sunday. This keeps the best afternoon rain chances over the northern half of the area. Otherwise, highs continue to be seasonal through Sunday. The ridge continues to build in through next week. Temperatures climb a little, with dry air returning. This increases fire weather concerns starting Monday. The chance of any showers and thunderstorms also remains very low for next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 447 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will wind down this evening. Unless a thunderstorm moves directly over a terminal conditions will be VFR, although smoke will move in today, so reductions in VIS due to smoke/haze will occur at times, especially for northern terminals KCOD/KWRL. For now have not included FU in this TAF issuance due to uncertainty in how quickly it mixes down to the surface. An area of rain showers is likely (80%) to move through central Wyoming Saturday morning, so have included -SHRA at KBPI/KPNA/KLND/KRIW as this area of rain showers moves through. More convection will develop Saturday afternoon, although it looks more isolated, so only PROB30 groups at KRKS and KCPR. It will be breezy at most terminals beginning late Saturday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to 1 PM MDT Sunday for WYZ001>013. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...Rowe