Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 241013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
413 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Zonal flow will be in place over the region today with much of the
forecast area remaining dry. However the far north will have a
chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms thanks to
a weak shortwave moving through. Warmer temperatures will finally
have a chance to advect in from the southwest, but even so the
area will still be slightly cooler than normal. The biggest
weather impact of the day will be gusty west winds this afternoon.
Winds will be strongest across southern Wyoming, with gusts 30 to
40 mph. Breezy conditions will be felt across most of western and
central Wyoming as well. Winds and precipitation chances will
quickly diminish through the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

H5 ridge begins to buckle northward in response to deepening trough
off the west coast on Wednesday. A weak impulse will sweep through
on the leading edge of the ridge Wednesday, bringing a small chance
for showers mainly for Yellowstone and the Bighorn basin during peak
heating, but otherwise the remainder of the region will remain dry
and much warmer. H7 temperatures reach 12 to 14 degrees, translating
to temperatures of 85 to 90 degrees for lower elevations, and 65 to
70 degrees at higher elevations. Models have the ridge peaking on
Thursday in the area, with a large area of 14 to 15 degrees temps at
H7, with more widespread temperatures in around 90 east of the
divide, and around 85 across southern WY. Models have backed off of
the advancement of the H5 trough until Saturday, so Friday will be
another warm day similar to Thursday, maybe a skosh lower, but still
very warm. Moisture starts drawing northeastward into western WY
over the weekend, doing some slight moderating of temperatures
for Saturday and Sunday. Still some uncertainty regarding features
of the trough sweeping into the region for the weekend, so have
left forecast dry for now, with low confidence on any direction
for now.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday

Isolated showers will occur this morning in northern WY. More showers
and isolated thunderstorms will occur after 19Z through 06Z Tuesday
over northern WY. KCOD and KWRL would be the terminal sites potentially
impacted by this activity. Breezy to windy conditions will be common
at most terminal sites around 18Z, until 02Z, then diminishing.
VFR conditions will prevail at the terminal sites through the period.
Local MVFR conditions may occur in the north with thunderstorms.


Issued AT 339 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

It will be mostly dry across the area today with just a chance of
showers and thunderstorms across the far north. Southern Wyoming
will have gusty west winds this afternoon; western and central
Wyoming will be breezy. Winds will diminish this evening along
with precipitation chances. The warming trend continues and
afternoons through the week can expect to be similar to today with
lower afternoon humidity and breezy to windy conditions. This will
lead to elevated fire weather conditions with Thursday the warmest
and driest day of the week.




SHORT TERM...Bourque
LONG TERM...Straub
FIRE WEATHER...Bourque is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.