Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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703 FXUS65 KRIW 192315 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 515 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today begins the warming trend, which will persist into the weekend. The first triple-digit temps of the season are possible Sunday and Monday. - A wetter plume will push into WY beginning Thursday afternoon, with best chances for precipitation occurring Friday afternoon. - Hot and dry weather will occur through the weekend and into the early part of next week with low confidence in any relief coming. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 We remain cooler than normal today as cloud cover across much of the region has limited warming. The warmth will return though, with temps climbing to much above normal values by the weekend. We may even see our first triple-digits across portions of the Bighorn Basin Sunday and Monday. The Basin/Greybull to Lovell area is the most likely to see 100+ temps (50 - 60% chance) Sunday and Monday. Temperatures look to moderate slightly after Tuesday, but extended range model solutions are not showing any strong indications of a longwave trough or moisture plume that would bring much in the way of relief from the heat. Before we really start to bake and dry out this weekend, we will have one last chance for some moisture with a push of Gulf moisture beginning Thursday evening. Today, the moisture flow will generally be to our east, though there is a 20 chance that some isolated showers could develop along Casper Mountain or perhaps the southern Bighorns later this afternoon. The trough to our west will regress westward tomorrow and even further east for Friday, allowing widely scattered shower activity to spread into the region. Best chances for precipitation will come Friday. Best wetting rain (>0.1 in.) chances will be east of the Divide, particularly off the lee of the Winds, Bighorns, and Casper Mountain. Shower chances continue through Friday evening, then taper off after sunset. Then Saturday, the ridge begins to build and the real warmup begins. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 515 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Weak high pressure and a fast southwest to northeast mid-level flow over the area is keeping VFR conditions across western and central WY through at least late Thursday afternoon. Dry conditions persist across western WY, with somewhat moister air along and east of the divide. Late this afternoon into the early evening may see some moderate cumulus with light showers and very isolated thunder over the northeast Absarokas as well as around Casper Mountain, though they have a very low chance (10%) to impact KCOD and KCPR other than some gusty outflow. Winds are light to breezy today with some gusts reaching 20 kts. Some gusty east winds are likely across central WY overnight. Clouds should increase Thursday morning, especially east of the divide, as moisture increases from a disturbance over CO. Isolated storms should develop over parts of central WY and the northern WY mountains late in the afternoon Thursday, with showers persisting overnight. While KRKS should see gusty SW winds during the afternoon, gusty east winds will increase across central WY. Localized MVFR conditions are possible from 20/22Z-21/06Z due to the isolated thunderstorms and showers. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSUs ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hensley AVIATION...McDonald/Rowe