958
FXUS61 KRLX 240627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
227 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms before exiting east
early this morning. More seasonable air Monday. Another cold
front Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1003 PM Sunday...

Cold front, currently transversing the area, will continue to
spread isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as it
moves east overnight. Low level flow will be enough to prevent
widespread fog, but expecting low stratus to develop overnight
into Monday morning. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 215 PM Sunday...

After an initial band of showers fell apart as it entered the
area this morning, a new band of showers fired up just west of,
and slicing into northwest portions of, the forecast area early
this afternoon, ahead of a cold front and beneath a broad,
loosely defined mid level short wave trough.

While there is limited opportunity for surface heating due to
cloud cover, temperatures were off to a high start this morning,
and were already at or near convective temperatures, in the mid
to upper 80s, across much of the middle Ohio valley. SPC
analysis showed modest CAPE of under a KJ/kg over much of the
forecast area, but as high as 1.5 KJ/kg along the western
flank, and 2 KJ/kg just upstream, where the convection was
starting to fire up.

This and deep layer bulk shear to 30 kts or so should be just
enough for strong to marginally severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
especially in clusters or short line segments. SPC has
maintained the slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the
middle Ohio Valley, with a marginal risk elsewhere.

While rainfall rates have not been high at all yet, PW values in
the 1.75 to 2 inch range should lead to heavy downpours as
storms intensify this afternoon. WPC continues the marginal risk
for locally excessive rainfall for the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in intensity
and coverage as they move east across the mountains tonight.
Once the cold front crosses, low clouds may form, mainly in and
near the mountains, but there should be enough gradient low
level flow to keep fog formation limited, and the clouds will
mix into an afternoon cumulus field atop the deepening mixing
layer on Monday.

After a warm evening ahead of the front, save for wet-bulb
cooling, lows Monday morning will be perceptibly lower across
northwest portions of the forecast area, and slightly lower
southeast, compared with this notably warm morning. Monday
brings relief from the heat with highs down around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather on Tuesday,
with temperatures climbing back above normal for this time of
year.

A cold front and an upper level trough will then bring showers
and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Some models are indicating at
least 2 rounds of showers and thunderstorms with this system.
Models do have differences on prefrontal energy and
precipitation. The cold front should push through late Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Some models indicate enough remaining
moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
mountains on Thursday. More seasonable temperatures will return
again for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 AM Monday...

With a high pressure system shifting off to the east on Friday,
temperatures will again climb back above normal for this time of
year. A few mountain showers and thunderstorms are once again
possible, although most of the region will remain dry.

A southerly wind flow and an approaching from will increase the
chances of showers and thunderstorms area wide on Saturday.
Models have a cold front pushing through on Sunday, although
there are differences in timing between the models.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 108 AM Monday...

A few showers, some with lightning, remain across the mountains
as a cold front moves through the area this morning. Allowed
TEMPO for SHRA or VCSH/VCTS to sites where appropriate. Most of
the activity will remain across the mountains for the remainder
of the morning.

MVFR stratocu and some patchy fog will likely develop along the
eastern mountains and western foothills this morning as showers
taper off and cooler temperatures filter in behind FROPA. Some
models and current obs suggest MVFR or IFR stratocu will form
elsewhere this morning as winds slack off, but NW flow picking
up later this morning should impeded this from occurring. VFR
will take back over by late morning/early afternoon for most
locations as clouds clear.

Winds will be WNW and light with FROPA, becoming variable and
light to calm behind it. Light winds pick up with a NW`rly
direction by daybreak, then shift out of the NE this evening
into tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms ending
may vary from forecast. There is a chance that IFR/MVFR stratocu
or fog formation is more widespread than advertised this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 06/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in fog early Tuesday morning. Brief
IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC