627
FXUS61 KRLX 250234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1034 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms prevail through at least midweek.
Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the
weekend as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1030 PM Tuesday...

The severe threat is nonexistent at this point as isolated
storms across the mountains continue to lose their convective
thrive and become warm stratiform showers. Continuing to watch
our southwestern VA counties though as there are still a few
storms approaching, but largely the energy here has already
been tapped and these storms are quickly decaying.

As of 720 PM Tuesday...

Watching thunderstorms across eastern KY that are making their
way towards the forecast area this evening. Quite a few of these
storms have a boisterous streak having been severe warned for
damaging winds and hail. The tornadic activity has remained far
to our west in KY/OH and to our east across southern VA.
Overall,they appear to be weakening as they approach the area.
Still, some storms may pack damaging winds, heavy rain and hail
early this evening.

Will have to remain vigilant though as these storms enter our
area in the next few hours as a low-level jet aloft is allowing
for 40-50kts of 0-6km wind shear and 100-200m2/s2 of helicity
which could certainly allow for storm longevity and rotation.
However, cloud LCL heights have risen over the past few hours,
above 1,000m for most locations, and there is a moderate cap
over the area due to cloud cover, so confidence has lessened for
tornadoes and widespread severe weather.

The threat for severe weather and an isolated tornado or two
while not significant, is also not zero, so it is important to
remain weather aware this evening. This risk in particular
covers our KY and VA counties, southern OH and also the metro
valley and southern coalfields of WV where there is a slight
(level 2/5) risk for severe weather.

As of 152 PM Tuesday...

A deepening upper-level low pressure system over the IL and IN, will
bring areas of vorticity around its periphery across the OH Valley
and WV through tonight. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over WV
will serve as a focus for additional convection tonight. Hi-res models
suggest next round of showers and storms lifting north across
southern WV and SW VA this evening affecting mainly the eastern
half of the area, along and near the mountains. Another round is
forecasted to arrive to the Tri- state area (OH/KY/WV) and
extreme southern WV during the predawn hours Wednesday morning.
Localized heavy downpours will be possible with the heavier
storms. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall exist for the
entire area through tonight.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exist for portions of WV,
northeast KY and southeast OH through tonight. The main threat will
be damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

While the area remains under the warm sector of a dissipating
surface low pressure system, dewpoints will remain elevated. Expect
tonight`s temperatures to range from the mid to upper 60s
across the lowlands, into the low 60s central mountains, and mid
50s higher elevations of our northeast mountains.

Abundant cloudiness and expected cooling showers should keep
warm Max temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s lowlands,
into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s higher
elevations of our northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Still looking a little drier overall on Thursday as upper low
continues to sag south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley,
taking bulk of moisture south and west with it. Precipitation, and
winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the remnants of
Tropical Storm Helene move onshore and northward towards the region,
eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across
Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Ample moisture, with PW values
progged to rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to
provide some beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the
mountains from upslope effects.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Unsettled weather will continue in the extended period as the upper
low continues to spread moisture northward into the area, with
increasing chances for precipitation as we head into next week and
the low gradually lifts northeast, eventually opening into a wave as
it moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 720 PM Tuesday...

Watching some strong to severe thunderstorms to our southwest
that will be making their way into the forecast area with in the
next few hours. Some storms may be strong to severe with heavy
rain, damaging wind gusts, hail and the possibility for an
isolated tornado. IFR restrictions or lower are possible with
any storms.

Expecting activity to taper off from southwest to northeast by
~06z, with scattered chances for showers remaining overnight.
Low stratus and some patchy fog is anticipated across the area
in the wake of these showers and storms, so most every site has
MVFR/IFR CIG and VIS restrictions after ~06z.

Models show another round of showers and storms approaching from
the southwest between ~11-12z tomorrow morning which will move
across the area through the morning. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected as well, with likely chances more
confined across the mountains and foothills.

Winds will remain light and southerly this evening and tomorrow,
except in and around any thunderstorms where they could be
erratic and gusty.



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may
vary from forecast. Location, timing and intensity of low
stratus/patchy fog overnight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 09/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday
evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC