Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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216 FXUS61 KRLX 170532 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 132 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged heat wave builds through next week amid mainly dry weather courtesy of an upper level ridge. The chance for isolated showers or storms returns on Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 800 PM Sunday... Adjusted overnight temperatures a couple (to few) degrees lower across portions of the CWA. Lows tonight bottom out in the 60s across the lowlands, with mid 50s to low 60s in the mountains. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 445 PM Sunday... Made minor tweaks to temperatures and cloud cover into early tonight. Additionally, have taken out the chance for ISOL SHRAS/TSTMS across our far southwest zones this evening. The latest NUCAPS soundings indicate significant dry air in the low/mid levels. This should keep most, if not all of the area dry this evening, with perhaps just the potential of a highly isolated shower or two. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 145 PM Sunday... Key Point: * Heat indices will reach the lower 100s across parts of the lowlands Monday afternoon. With an extended stretch of unseasonably hot weather on the way, make sure to keep heat safety in mind, and take frequent breaks in the air conditioning if possible. It`s turning out to be quite a hot Sunday with temperatures reaching the upper 80s across the lowlands, even approaching 90 degrees in some spots. The lower 90s are expected later this afternoon. Dew point temperatures are reaching the lower to middle 60s, making the air feel more humid. Pop-up showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled out this afternoon, mainly across our southwest Virginia counties, where CAPE is a bit higher and a field of cumulus is currently developing. Quiet conditions are expected overnight. Another hot day is expected Monday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. Dew points will reach the lower 70s and temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the lowlands, making it a high CAPE environment with low shear. Severe weather is generally not expected, but we can`t rule out a few tall thunderstorms producing isolated damaging wind gusts. Heat index values will likely reach the upper 90s and lower 100s across the lowlands. Upgrades from Excessive Heat Watch may be needed either overnight or Monday morning for the upcoming hot weather on Monday afternoon. In addition, it`s important to practice heat safety. Make sure to drink plenty of water and electrolyte containing beverages if spending extended time outside. In addition, it`s important to apply sunscreen and take frequent breaks in the shade or the air conditioning to cool off. Make sure to frequently check on the elderly and those more susceptible to heat related illness. Never leave pets or children unattended in vehicles during this hot stretch. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 113 PM Sunday... Key Point: * Excessive Heat Watch continues Tuesday through Friday. For Tuesday, broad upper level high pressure overhead will block any shortwave energy to move over our area, providing mostly clear skies through the period. At the surface, high pressure to our east maintains southwest flow, which continues to bring moisture and warm air advection to the area on Tuesday. The moisture, with temperatures rising into the mid 90s, will produce strong bouyancy. Dewpoints in the lower 70s, PWATs around 1.8 inches, under high CAPE; low shear environment will support isolated pulse thunderstorms, some with strong updrafts Tuesday afternoon. Therefore, locally heavy downpours can be expected Tuesday afternoon. Models that bring precipitation on Tuesday are the NAM, RAP13 and GFS. Any convection that manage to develop will quickly dissipate by sunset. Added PoPs and thunderstorms to the forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Under mostly clear skies, outside afternoon showers or storms, highs on Tuesday are expected to rise into the mid 90s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will reach the triple digits at some spots across the lowlands. Therefore, an Excessive Heat Watch remains in effect. It is anticipated that a Heat Advisory will be required for Tuesday at this point. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 115 PM Sunday... Key Point: * Excessive Heat Watch continues through Friday. Persisting high pressure will remain in control Wednesday through Friday, continuing with dry and hot weather. High pressure eventually loosens its influence over the area and begins to recede south next weekend, bringing chance for precipitation over the weekend. Daily high temperatures across the lowlands will increase from the mid 90s on Wednesday, into the upper 90s by Friday. Over the mountains, highs should be from the mid 80s to low 90s. Meanwhile, heat index values are expected to climb into the upper 90s to low 100s for the lowlands again Wednesday through Friday afternoon. Additional Heat headlines will be required through this period. As temperatures turn hotter, a few heat safety tips to remember are: * Drink plenty of fluids * Wear light, loose fitting clothing * Take breaks in the shade or air conditioned locations * Never leave children or pets in an unattended vehicle * Check on elderly or heat sensitive individuals && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM Monday... Calm to light winds are currently present across the area. Some patchy fog could eventually develop at EKN if winds decouple before daybreak. Cloud cover may also increase as a warm front crosses the CWA early this morning. A few showers could accompany the frontal passage, though confidence is low enough to leave out mention in the TAFs. Another opportunity for isolated showers and thunderstorms develops for the afternoon and evening as heat and moisture increase during the day. Light winds and VFR conditions are currently anticipated for the majority of the TAF period, though a few MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS restrictions could occur 1) within any early morning fog and 2) in heavier showers or storms during the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions could occur in showers or thunderstorms. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 06/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... As of 920 PM Sunday... A prolonged heat wave builds across the area through next week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Monday, June 17 to Saturday, June 22 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values. Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Monday, 6/17 | Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19 -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 91 / 98 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 98 (1919) | HTS | 92 /100 (1936) | 93 / 98 (1944) | 95 / 98 (1994) | CKB | 91 / 96 (1967) | 94 / 96 (1936) | 95 / 94 (1994) | PKB | 93 / 98 (1936) | 95 / 98 (1944) | 96 / 95 (1994) | BKW | 85 / 93 (1936) | 86 / 93 (1936) | 87 / 90 (1944) | EKN | 89 / 92 (1936) | 91 / 91 (1994) | 92 / 89 (1905) | -------------------------------------------------------- Thursday, 6/20 | Friday, 6/21 | Saturday, 6/22 -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 95 / 99 (1931) | 96 /105 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1988) | HTS | 96 /100 (1931) | 98 / 99 (1953) | 96 / 98 (1988) | CKB | 95 / 94 (1931) | 96 / 98 (1953) | 96 / 97 (1923) | PKB | 97 / 97 (1931) | 98 / 97 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | BKW | 88 / 92 (1931) | 91 / 93 (1953) | 90 / 92 (1931) | EKN | 93 / 92 (1931) | 93 / 92 (1953) | 93 / 93 (1923) | -------------------------------------------------------- Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the upcoming heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records. Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 96 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 98 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 96 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 98 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 91 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 93 | 96 (2012) | ----------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Excessive Heat Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-521. OH...Excessive Heat Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Excessive Heat Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB/GW/JMC NEAR TERM...GW/JMC SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JLB CLIMATE...