607
FXUS61 KRLX 240532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
132 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms before exiting east
of the Appalachians late tonight. More seasonable air can be
expected behind the front on Monday. Heating up again midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1003 PM Sunday...

Cold front, currently transversing the area, will continue to
spread isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as it
moves east overnight. Low level flow will be enough to prevent
widespread fog, but expecting low stratus to develop overnight
into Monday morning. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 215 PM Sunday...

After an initial band of showers fell apart as it entered the
area this morning, a new band of showers fired up just west of,
and slicing into northwest portions of, the forecast area early
this afternoon, ahead of a cold front and beneath a broad,
loosely defined mid level short wave trough.

While there is limited opportunity for surface heating due to
cloud cover, temperatures were off to a high start this morning,
and were already at or near convective temperatures, in the mid
to upper 80s, across much of the middle Ohio valley. SPC
analysis showed modest CAPE of under a KJ/kg over much of the
forecast area, but as high as 1.5 KJ/kg along the western
flank, and 2 KJ/kg just upstream, where the convection was
starting to fire up.

This and deep layer bulk shear to 30 kts or so should be just
enough for strong to marginally severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
especially in clusters or short line segments. SPC has
maintained the slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the
middle Ohio Valley, with a marginal risk elsewhere.

While rainfall rates have not been high at all yet, PW values in
the 1.75 to 2 inch range should lead to heavy downpours as
storms intensify this afternoon. WPC continues the marginal risk
for locally excessive rainfall for the area.

Showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in intensity
and coverage as they move east across the mountains tonight.
Once the cold front crosses, low clouds may form, mainly in and
near the mountains, but there should be enough gradient low
level flow to keep fog formation limited, and the clouds will
mix into an afternoon cumulus field atop the deepening mixing
layer on Monday.

After a warm evening ahead of the front, save for wet-bulb
cooling, lows Monday morning will be perceptibly lower across
northwest portions of the forecast area, and slightly lower
southeast, compared with this notably warm morning. Monday
brings relief from the heat with highs down around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...

Tuesday looks to remain mainly dry across the area, although an
isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out from any
passing disturbance, overall, we should be stable enough to prevent
much of anything from developing. Temperatures on Tuesday will
likely top out in the lower 90s once again for many lowland
locations. By Wednesday, showers and storms will be on the increase
once again, possibly in multiple rounds, with one round possible in
the morning, and another later in the day as an upper trough and
cold front start to move through the area. Some of these storms
could be strong to severe, and will contain heavy downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1148 AM Sunday...

Frontal boundary and upper trough will move east of the area late
Wednesday night or early Thursday, with high pressure building into
the region behind it. This should usher in a brief period of cooler
and drier weather for Thursday. By Friday into the weekend, heat
returns, as southerly flow increases out ahead of the next
system, which will move into the area over the weekend, with
additional rounds of showers and storms. A bit early to say for
sure, but heat headlines may be needed during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 108 AM Monday...

A few showers, some with lightning, remain across the mountains
as a cold front moves through the area this morning. Allowed
TEMPO for SHRA or VCSH/VCTS to sites where appropriate. Most of
the activity will remain across the mountains for the remainder
of the morning.

MVFR stratocu and some patchy fog will likely develop along the
eastern mountains and western foothills this morning as showers
taper off and cooler temperatures filter in behind FROPA. Some
models and current obs suggest MVFR or IFR stratocu will form
elsewhere this morning as winds slack off, but NW flow picking
up later this morning should impeded this from occurring. VFR
will take back over by late morning/early afternoon for most
locations as clouds clear.

Winds will be WNW and light with FROPA, becoming variable and
light to calm behind it. Light winds pick up with a NW`rly
direction by daybreak, then shift out of the NE this evening
into tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms ending
may vary from forecast. There is a chance that IFR/MVFR stratocu
or fog formation is more widespread than advertised this
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             MON 06/24/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR restrictions possible in fog early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC