375
FXUS61 KRLX 161709
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
109 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather, and elevated fire danger, continues today under
strong high pressure. An area of low pressure off the Atlantic
coast brings the chance for beneficial rain mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 AM Monday...

Adjusted down hourly temperatures and dewpoints per latest
surface observation trends. Used the 50th percentile dewpoints
from the NBM to reflect lowering RHs down into the upper 20s
this afternoon. Onset of light precipitation should occur
overnight mainly along the eastern mountains. Rest of forecast
remains on track.

As of 240 AM Monday...

Light easterly flow today picking up slightly by the afternoon
with occasional gusty conditions expected along the higher
terrain. Very dry conditions in the low levels courtesy of high
pressure anchored to our north will likely mix down and keep the
area dry and relatively cloud free other than mid to high
clouds coming in off of the tropical system along the Atlantic
coast. The afternoon mixing will drop RH values down into the
20s and 30s across the lowlands with slightly higher values
along the mountains, however the mountains will have stronger
gustier conditions.

With the anticipation of a fairly solid deck of mid to high
clouds spreading across from east to west throughout the area
by this afternoon will likely suppress some daytime heating,
therefore elected to use guidance with lower temperatures
keeping temperatures slightly below central guidance which
equated to a lot of the area not forecast to reach the 80
degree mark. Areas along and west of the Ohio will likely see
higher temperatures due to having the longest time without
dense cloud coverage.

Slight chances for showers will appear in the forecast for
the afternoon across southeastern WV and these chances will
continue to spread inward and toward the northwest into the
evening, eventually making it all the way across the area by
early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 103 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Rounds of showers are expected Wednesday, but it won`t be
  nearly enough rain to improve the drought.
* High relative humidity values expected Wednesday and Thursday
  will mitigate any fire weather concerns.

Models are projecting that the remnants of what is currently
"Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight" will be centered somewhere
near the western NC/SC border Wednesday morning with very little
movement throughout the day Wednesday. This will bring rounds
of showers into portions of the area Wednesday. The rain will be
beneficial, but it won`t be nearly enough rain to improve the
drought. Relative humidity values will range from 70-80%, which
will mitigate any fire weather issues for a brief time. High
temperatures Wednesday will remain slightly below average due to
the increased cloud coverage.

Models are coming into better agreement for later this week, and
most members are showing the remnant low weakening and tracking
northeast along the Appalachian mountains Thursday. Isolated showers
remain possible Thursday, but chances will be lower as dry air
spills into the area from the north. Temperatures will be closer to
average for the middle of September. We also expect more breaks in
the clouds by the afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast
and mid-level dry air approaches from the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 104 PM Monday...

Key Point:

* Went with a warm and dry forecast for this weekend, but
  confidence is low at this time.
* Fire threat may increase again this weekend.

Models are showing low pressure centered somewhere over the
Northeast Friday, but beyond Friday, models diverge and the overall
pattern becomes more uncertain. Latest runs of the GFS and Canadian
models show low pressure pushing out to sea and another upper-level
ridge building into the Ohio Valley this weekend, while latest runs
of the ECMWF instead show the closed upper-level low lingering over
the East Coast to finish off the weekend. We suspect the ECMWF may
be an outlier and went with a warm, dry forecast for this weekend,
but confidence is low at this time.

Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to drop into the
30-40% range Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons across
parts of the lowlands. This could lead to an increased threat
of fires once again if the dry forecast holds this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

For this TAF period expecting VFR to dominate. Flow will be
easterly at around 5KT across the area with stronger flow along
the mountains particularly at BKW where gusts up to 20KT can be
expected during the day. That site will endure some llws this
evening temporarily until surface winds pick back up. Mainly
just high clouds today spreading across the sky which will
become likely overcast by this late afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 405 AM Monday...

Dry weather persists at least through the afternoon.

Very dry air aloft will mix down to the surface during daytime
mixing hours today. Minimum relative humidity values expected
into the 20 to 30 percent range across the lower elevations,
with slightly higher values in the higher terrain. Easterly
winds will continue to gust to between 15 and 25 mph at times
across the ridges. Approaching clouds from the east-southeast
may help to mitigate such a rise in afternoon high temperatures
today.

The next potential chance for rain is Tuesday into Thursday in
association with a low pressure system originating in the
Atlantic, and then any potential lingering tropical moisture
associated with it. Confidence in amount and placement of
precipitation is low at this time given model spread. The best
chance of beneficial rainfall will be along and east of the
higher terrain, but some beneficial rainfall farther west cannot
be ruled out.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JMC
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ/JZ

FIRE WEATHER...JZ/JMC