Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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028 FXUS61 KRNK 161754 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 154 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry with a few isolated showers through this evening. Another storm system will cross the area Friday through late Sunday. This system will bring widespread rain to the area. Monday and Tuesday look drier. High temperatures generally look to be in the 60s and 70s through the weekend, with a slight warming trend into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) A few afternoon showers or stray thunderstorm, but mostly dry today. 2) Rain returns tomorrow. Upper low is currently spinning just off the New Jersey coast this afternoon. Flow is generally from the northwest with a weak stalled boundary across West Virginia. Widespread cumulus clouds continue, but have had enough breaks in the cloud cover to warm up nicely already. As we continue to heat, may have a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm or two develop across the area this afternoon. Any rain or thunderstorm activity wanes by sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Clearing skies tonight will calm winds and residual low level moisture will likely lead to areas of dense fog throughout the area. An open wave over the Plains today will move east, situated over the Tennessee Valley by Friday morning. Flow will return to southwest and a weak boundary draped across the region will be the focus for a renewed chance of rain and thunderstorm activity by Friday afternoon. Localized heavier downpours could lead to some minor flooding issues. With breaks in the clouds today, this will be the warmest day with afternoon highs topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s. Tomorrow, clouds and rain will hamper daytime heating a bit so highs tomorrow mostly in the 70s. Overnight lows remain mild in the 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 110 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for more unsettled weather with chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout this weekend. 2) There is a marginal risk of flooding due to the potential for repeated rounds of rainfall. A cold front will enter the Mid Atlantic on Friday night to bring high chances of showers and thunderstorms. The storms should weaken by early Saturday morning as the atmosphere becomes more stable. Ample moisture should be available due to a southeast flow advecting air from the Atlantic Ocean. Some thunderstorms may develop again by Saturday afternoon due to increasing instability aloft as an upper level low approaches. This upper level low should pass overhead by Saturday night into Sunday to continue the unsettled weather, but the thunder threat will dip lower as the flow turns to the northeast and advect cooler air towards the Appalachian Mountains. With this prolonged period of wet conditions from repeated rounds of rainfall, there is a marginal risk of flooding for poor drainage or low-lying areas. Some locations could see one to two inches with locally higher amounts over the weekend, but it will be the heavier rainfall rates from storms that pose the main concern for any hydrological issues. The risk of severe weather also appears to be low, but there may be some stronger storms possible if enough instability is available. Temperatures were kept to the cooler side of model guidance due to the abundant cloud cover and ongoing chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is moderate for drier conditions to return during Monday and Tuesday. 2) The next chance of showers and thunderstorms may arrive by Wednesday from a cold front. The upper level low should slowly drift off the North Carolina coast by Monday, and the models are starting to indicate better agreement for drier weather. Meanwhile, ridging will take place across the Appalachian Mountains. With high pressure taking firmer control by Tuesday to provide more sunshine, a warming trend should ensue. Even warmer air will arrive by Wednesday from southwest flow ahead of the next cold front. However, most of the dynamical energy with this front should pass well to the north in Canada, so just a chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Weak high pressure could follow by Thursday to offer lower chances of rain. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... Mostly VFR this afternoon with some MVFR clouds across the mountains. This will continue into the evening hours, but with clouds lessening after sunset. With weak high pressure, residual low level moisture from recent rainfall, and calm winds, will likely see areas of dense fog overnight. Have all terminals going sub-VFR during the early morning hours, lasting through sunrise by an hour or 2. Should see improvements by 13z/14z with increasing cloud cover again in advance of the next storm system. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Deteriorating conditions by Friday afternoon with sub VFR conditions returning. Sub VFR likely with rain and low clouds, which is expected to continue through the weekend with some improvements by the beginning of next week as the slow moving storm system begins to depart east. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...BMG