872
FXUS61 KRNK 070720
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
320 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the southwest today and linger
into Saturday. Another front tracks into the area Sunday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms, with mainly dry weather for
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1221 AM EDT Friday...

Scattered to broken clouds will clear out through the morning,
with drier air to our northwest working into the mountains this
morning and piedmont by afternoon. Should be a fairly sunny day
with highs close to normal with lower to mid 80s east to lower
to mid 70s west. You will notice lower humidity as
west/northwest winds will be driving dewpoints down. A few gusts
to 20-25 mph possible, especially mountains.

Keeping it clear and cooler Friday night with high pressure
tracking into the southern Appalachians. Lows will be in the 50s
for most, but some 40s in the mountains are likely as well.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers and possible storms Sunday.
2. Chance for isolated to scattered showers in the mountains Monday.
3. Drier and cooler Saturday.

Surface high pressure will remain situated over the region through
Saturday, while an upper trough will sit over southeastern Canada
through the forecast period. The surface high will keep the weather
drier and temperatures near to a few degrees below normal for
Saturday, but pressure rises and some cold air advection will
lead to breezy conditions. Sunday will likely start off dry, but
a cold front approaches from the west through the day, and an
upper shortwave will move through the base of the trough into
the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to increased chances for
scattered showers by Sunday afternoon and evening, and stronger
winds aloft will increase chances for isolated to scattered
storms, with the greatest probabilities along and west of the
Blue Ridge. Any activity will likely wane after sunset, with the
loss of daytime heating and thus decrease in instability.

The front looks to eventually stall across the southeastern states
by the beginning of the work week, while the upper trough digs
farther southward. With the trough remaining over the eastern US
through the start of the week, precipitation chances remain in the
forecast, but are low, and mainly for the mountains Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Lower confidence on precipitation chances for the first half of
the work week.
2. Near to just below normal temperatures, but warming through
midweek.

The mid and upper level patterns generally show troughing persisting
over the eastern US through the first half of the work week, and
some ridging developing over the central and western US at some
point during the early to midweek time frame. However, long range
deterministic and ensemble guidance are showing differences in the
evolution of the pattern early in the work week. At this point in
the forecast period, deterministic models nearly two distinct
patterns, as some suggest dry, northwesterly flow for Tuesday, which
would keep the weather precipitation free and just below normal to
near normal temperatures, while some other solutions are suggesting
a secondary upper low developing in the upper Midwest by Monday,
rounding the base of the larger upper trough and bringing more
widespread precipitation to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Given
these discrepancies in the guidance and resulting uncertainty,
have opted to keep precipitation probabilities on the lower side
to reflect the lower forecast confidence. Later in the week,
the 500mb ridging will push eastward and eventually move
overhead, leading to the return of drier weather and a warming
trend in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1226 AM EDT Friday...

VFR expected through the period as drier air works in from the
west. A small window of IFR fog at LWB cannot be ruled out, and
some models tank LWB at 1/4sm, but given the drier air will lean
toward tempo 3sm.

West/northwest winds are going to pick up after 14z today with a
few gusts to 20-25kts. Winds subside by 00z/Sat.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR for most of the period. Exceptions being a few shower/storms
Sunday could bring sub-VFR mainly to the mountains. Isolated
chances of showers/storms Monday-Tuesday so low confidence on
sub-VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...DB/WP