226
FXUS61 KRNK 171418
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1018 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another storm system will cross the area today through late
Sunday. This system will bring widespread rain to the area.
Monday and Tuesday look drier. High temperatures generally look
to be in the 60s and 70s through the weekend, with a slight
warming trend beginning Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Friday...

A weak stalled frontal boundary splits the CWA from north to
south. This is evident by east/northeast winds extending from
Martinsville to Lynchburg and then north into the Shenandoah
Valley. Plenty of high clouds this morning have kept warming to
a minimum, but current visible satellite indicates that some
breaks will be likely as the day progresses. Still expecting
some shower and thunderstorm development, especially along the
stalled boundary and for areas that can see sun today. Still the
potential for heavy rain over the southern Shenandoah and any
expansions to the current Flood Watch will be assessed with the
12z guidance.



As of 440 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Flood Watch issued for parts of the Shenandoah Valley and
central VA.

Based on projected rainfall totals, a Flood Watch has been
issued for this afternoon through late tonight for Bath,
Rockbridge, Amherst, Appomattox, and Buckingham Counties. This
Watch may need to be expanded in time and perhaps area as the
event unfolds.

Otherwise, dense fog is being driven out of parts of SE WV/SW VA
and northern NC as mid and high clouds spill into the area from
the west. Fog along with lower cloud cover was located farther
east.


As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain spreads into the area by late morning/afternoon,
thunderstorms expected today mainly after 4 pm. Localized flash
flooding is the main concern.

2) Rain showers continue overnight but we should see coverage
decrease.

High pressure was shifting east this morning, allowing for mid
and upper level flow to become WSW. This will allow short wave
energy currently fueling thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast to
make its way to our western doorstep by late morning. Meanwhile,
another wave moving through the OH Valley will bring additional
lift to our northern counties. Surface low pressure does not
approach until sometime Saturday. In the interim, moisture
mainly coming from the Atlantic will improve our chances for
rain. Steadily increasing isentropic lift will begin to interact
with the terrain of the southern Blue Ridge later this morning,
and an increasing LLJ will improve out PWATs to between 1.3 to
1.6" per NAEFS projections by this afternoon, which is over 90%
of the normal daily max for this date.

Sporadic but widespread rain looks likely today, with embedded
thunderstorms possible, mainly after 4 pm. MUCAPE looks to be
around 500 J/kg or so, and with so much cloud cover we are not
expecting severe winds or hail. This is supported by the NCAR
Neural Net.

QPF will range from around a half inch to about an inch between
this morning and early Saturday morning, with much of it
falling this afternoon and evening. It does look like there will
a break in the rain in the early morning hours Saturday as we
are between waves. With our recent rainfall, we will have to
keep an eye on urban and small stream flooding, and possibly
localized flash flooding, especially if we see training. This
is consistent with the new Day 1 ERO from WPC which puts most of
our area in Marginal Risk, and the northeastern section in
Slight.

Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s today,
roughly northwest to southeast. Lows tonight will be warm and in
the 50s and 60s with plenty of fog and stratus.

Confidence in the near term forecast is moderate, but lower on
precipitation timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for more unsettled weather with chances of
showers and thunderstorms throughout this weekend.

2) There is a marginal risk of flooding due to the potential for
repeated rounds of rainfall.

A closed low is expected to form over the southern Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys by Saturday morning. This low will move
slowly to the east-southeast over the weekend, then off the
Carolina Coast on Monday. Moisture will stream in from both the
Gulf and Atlantic pushing PWATs to around 1.50 inches, which is
greater than 90 percent of the daily mean. Rainfall amounts of
1-2 inches are likely. Needless to say, the area is under a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and a chance for flooding
especially in low- lying area.

Some areas may have temperatures warm into the lower 70s
Saturday, but widespread 60s are expected on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier conditions return Monday and Tuesday.

2) The next chance for storm will be Wednesday afternoon and
night.

The closed low will move off the Carolina Coast on Monday,
bringing a return of drier weather and warmer temperatures.
Monday`s highs will be close to normal, then above normal on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Storms return to the area Wednesday
afternoon and night as a cold front moves over the region. High
pressure will end the workweek on a dry note with warmer than
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

Mid and high clouds continue to race towards the area from the
west today, and once they arrive we should see more interruption
of the dense fog developing in the river and mountain valleys.
VFR ceilings with -SHRA develop towards late morning/early
afternoon, and quickly drop to MVFR this afternoon and evening
in TSRA/SHRA. Scattered rain continues overnight with widespread
LIFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities developing late tonight into
early Saturday morning.

Light and variable winds this morning remain hard to pin down
for the first part of the day, but eventually turn southerly
this afternoon and evening, with a westerly component for the
mountain terminals.

Average confidence for the aviation forecast.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Precipitation will continue through the weekend with numerous
showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night.
MVFR/IFR clouds and showers remain in the area for Sunday and
Sunday night.

Some improvements by Monday as the slow moving storm system
begins to depart east. Tuesday is the most likely day to be VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for VAZ020-024-035-046-047.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/SH
NEAR TERM...BMG/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH