892
FXUS61 KRNK 021320
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system in the Mid Mississippi Valley will track east
today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. Daily
showers and thunderstorms continue for the region through
Thursday, before drier weather returns for the end of the week.
After Sunday, temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 915 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

   - Probability of precipitation adjusted for this morning

   - More showers and thunderstorms possible today.


First band of showers was crossing through the eastern West
Virginia, southwest Virginia and central North Carolina this
morning. Expecting a brief lull in rainfall before more showers
and thunderstorms reach the area this afternoon. Short wave and
more precipitation was over the Tennessee Valley and will be
crossing the area mainly after 2PM.

Have adjusted the probability of precipitation for the rest of
the morning based on the latest radar trends. No changes made
to temperature forecast at this time.



Previous Discussion
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...


High pressure still remains over the Atlantic with subtle
troughing across the Ohio Valley. Southwest flow across the
region has resulted in increasing moisture. Showers becoming a
little more widespread across the mountains this morning and
these will continue through sunrise.

Showers may wane a bit through late morning and early afternoon,
allowing for some breaks in the clouds. Although heating will
not be particularly strong, will likely still have modest
instability by the afternoon resulting in scattered
thunderstorms mainly across the mountains. Should lose coverage
and intensity of storms after sunset to just some remaining
scattered showers again tonight.

With expected cloud cover, highs today mainly in the low/mid
70s for the mountains and upper 70s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms each
day in this forecast period.

2) Stronger thunderstorms will be possible during Wednesday as a
cold front approaches.

A stalled frontal boundary will linger across North Carolina on
Monday, while weak high pressure passes to the north across eastern
Canada. The close proximity of this stalled boundary combined with
daytime heating and moisture should spark scattered showers and
thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Little change in the overall
atmospheric pattern is expected for Monday night into Tuesday as the
weak area of high pressure heads off the East Coast. More showers
and thunderstorms could develop on Tuesday afternoon as the frontal
boundary gets nudged northward as a warm front due to an approaching
cold front in the central Plains.

The flow will turn more southerly by Wednesday as the cold front
draws closer from the west. With increasing synoptic lift and
moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico, more organized
thunderstorms seem possible during Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Even the model soundings hint at some reasonable instability
available during this time. Coverage of the showers and
thunderstorms will likely become more widespread as well. The
convection should continue into Wednesday night as the cold front
reaches the Appalachian Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for more showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday as a cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic.

2) An upper level low will pass north of the Appalachian Mountains
to keep showers lingering into the weekend.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could continue into Thursday as
a cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic, but there are some subtle
model differences regarding the timing of the frontal passage that
may impact how much convection will occur. A deep upper level low
trailing behind the cold front should wobble eastward across eastern
Canada during Friday and Saturday. Bands of showers with maybe a
rumble of thunder due to the increasing lapse rates aloft will pass
across the Appalachian Mountains sometime during these two days.
Saturday appears more favorable for this activity due to drier air
arriving on Friday after the frontal passage. Temperatures should
dip a little lower to end the week from the presence of the upper
level low to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 625 AM EDT Sunday...

Widespread VFR conditions this morning and VFR should continue
through much of the day. A few light showers expected across the
mountains this morning.

Should have some clearing in clouds a bit later this morning
into the early afternoon. Afternoon storms possible across the
mountains and have added VCTS for a few hours this
afternoon/evening for mountain terminals.

With better moisture return and the potential for rainfall,
likely to have some fog development tonight and have added
mentions of BG/FG into the TAFs mainly after 06z Monday.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mostly VFR, but ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA could result in periodic
restrictions through the period. Some BR is also possible,
especially in valley locations through Tuesday.

Greater likelihood of restrictions/MVFR (or lower) flight
categories due to SHRA/TSRA by mid-week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...AMS/BMG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG