064
FXUS61 KRNK 041438
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1038 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast
United States today. A cold front approaches Wednesday bringing
better coverage of showers and thunderstorms to the area. The
front will move across region Thursday. A brief break in the
wet weather pattern is expected behind the front on Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Warm and humid.

2. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Morning soundings support SBCAPE ranging from 1500 j/kg over
the mountains to 2500 j/kg over the piedmont...enough buoyancy
for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Mean wind ranges from 5-8 mph out of the southwest...so
expecting slow cell movement...and not surprising since upper
level ridge is directly overhead.

For this afternoon, our area will be under an upper ridge,
although the axis should begin to shift east allowing a weak
upper level impulse to head toward the southern Appalachians
with it traversing into the Blue Ridge of VA overnight.

Airmass will have average pwats running 1.2 to 1.5 inches this
afternoon, so with a weak steering flow, storms could be slow moving
and some will likely produce heavy downpours. Interacting outflows
look to give the greater concentration of storms from the NC
mountains up the Blue Ridge toward Roanoke, where will have high
chance, then lower pops west and east of the Blue Ridge to isolated
in the piedmont and across the mountains of SE WV. Low confidence on
coverage as high-res models are showing some wide variance in where
the concentration will be highest, but blend has it along the Blue
Ridge.

Should see a decrease in coverage this evening into the overnight
but do not see radar becoming rain free, as showers could linger
into dawn Wednesday as shortwave ridge breaks down as front
approaches.

After any fog lifts this morning look for sunshine to give way to
building cumulus with a mix of clouds and sun in the afternoon. High
temps will run around 5 degrees above normal with mid to upper 80s
east to mid 70s to lower 80s across the mountains.

Continued mild Tue night with lower to mid 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms through midweek.
2. Moderate to heavy rain may lead to localized flooding Wednesday.
3. Warmer than normal temperatures through Thursday, cooler Friday.

Slight ridging aloft ahead of an approaching upper trough will be
over the eastern US through the middle of the week, allowing for
warmer temperatures to continue. The trough, centered over south
central Canada, will become more negatively tilted through the
midweek, and its associated cold front will reach the central
Appalachians and Mid Atlantic by late Wednesday into Thursday.
Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front, with the
greatest chances over the western mountains Wednesday afternoon and
evening. An upper shortwave rounds the base of the trough late
Wednesday, which will provide additional support aloft for showers
and thunderstorms. Above normal precipitable water values indicate
potential for locally heavy rain, which leads to a marginal risk of
flooding from excessive rainfall Wednesday. Ample moisture and
modest instability will increase chances for and coverage of
thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

The surface front will cross the area Thursday, which will bring an
end to the showers and storms, though some showers could linger in
the mountains through the day. Friday looks to be dry, but breezy
given the decent cold air advection behind the front. Cooler and
drier air works its way into the region following the frontal
passage, so temperatures will drop a few degrees for Friday and
heading into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Cooler temperatures through the weekend.
2. Chances for afternoon showers and storms continue through Sunday.

The mid level trough will be situated over southern Canada and the
eastern US through the weekend, with a few shortwaves rotating
through the trough, keeping chances for showers and possible storms
each afternoon and evening in the forecast, especially over the
mountains. Some long range models are showing a surface low and cold
front developing in the south central Plains by late Saturday,
reaching the Mid Atlantic by Sunday, bringing another round of heavy
rain and possible storms. However, with considerable differences in
the models with the evolution of the upper trough over southern
Canada, there is uncertainty in the forecast for the beginning of
the work week. That being said, there is potential for unsettled
weather to continue into Monday.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side through the weekend, near to
a few degrees below normal, following the passage of the cold front
during the week, and dewpoints will drop a few degrees as well. By
the beginning of the work week, temperatures will start gradually
warming to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Tuesday...

Expect cloud build-ups through early afternoon with development
of widely scattered showers/storms, favoring both mountains and
piedmont, but with little organization.  Due to the slow
movement, coverage, and timing of storms, forecast confidence is
too low to include in the TAFs. Overall should be VFR with a
light southeast wind.

Fog will likely form late tonight with MVFR to IFR at most
sites, highest confidence for LWB to get fog.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Morning fog is possible in mountain valleys Wednesday.

Greater likelihood of flight restrictions/MVFR (or lower) on
Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
cold front.

Friday is expected to be drier and a better probability of VFR
conditions behind the front. A few showers possible Sat in the
mountains but mainly VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SH/WP