995
FXUS64 KSHV 181739
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

As of 10:30 AM, temperatures are approaching the mid-80s with
mostly cloudy skies and southeasterly winds. Afternoon
temperatures will reach the lower 90s with onshore convection
expected to develop and propagate into the area through the
evening. With weather and observed trends continuing as
anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this
time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, labeled as
Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One), continues to support an
impressive northward advecting moisture channel into the Ark-La-
Tex this morning. At the same time, regional radar imagery
advertises weak reflectivity returns, increasing in coverage,
across much of southern and eastern Louisiana. While there is
little ground truth that precip is falling at this time, not
ruling out light showers through the early morning just yet.

Confidence in convective coverage continues to be focused around
the afternoon period as better daytime heating evolves. Given that
temperatures over performed yesterday under ample cloud coverage,
elected to bump MaxT`s a degree or two above the base NBM output.
Again, highs in the upper 80`s to low 90`s are expected. Obviously,
any rain cooling that occurs this morning and prior to peak
daytime heating will delay afternoon heating potential.

By Wednesday morning, guidance suggests that PTC One will be
somewhat better organized when compared to it`s current state, and
tracking off to the WNW, coming onshore in NE Mexico by the late
evening, possibly overnight Wednesday into Thursday AM. As this is
occurring, upper-ridging present over the eastern CONUS will
strengthen and expand, influencing the Ark-La-Tex as it gradually
displaces the rich tropical moisture to the west, replacing it with
a drier atmospheric column aloft. This will shift the rain focus
towards east Texas through Wednesday afternoon, with the highest
confidence in respectable measurable precip being located across
Deep East Texas.

It is worth mentioning however that the track of PTC One has
shifted south from run to run, and with it, the axis of tropical
moisture and QPF response. As a result, it is possible that the
afternoon package could see a further decrease in PoPs across the
region Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday evening, rainfall will
be little to none as we head into the overnight.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Heights aloft will continue to increase from east to west across the
Ark-La-Tex on Thursday, as the upper-ridge expands. Guidance
advertises as 597-598 dam ridge across the Tennessee Valley by
Thursday afternoon. Under the influence of the ridge, rain chances
will be non-existent as temperatures quickly rebound back in to
the mid 90`s, possibly warmer. Temperatures will only continue to
climb through the end of the week and heading in to the weekend as
rain chances will be trapped along the Louisiana coastline.

For now, upper 90`s look to make a return to the region through the
weekend, and possibly as deep as early next week. By Saturday, the
previously mentioned easterly sfc winds will become more southerly,
reintroducing GOM moisture. Given that temperatures will approach
the upper 90`s, and the increase of area dew points via gulf
moisture advection, it is becoming increasingly likely that heat
products will be needed in the coming days. Given drier than
expected conditions over the last several days, and an extended
dry period to end the week, it is possible temperatures may be
higher than the currently advertised values. Be sure to monitor
the forecast through the week for updates.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon with the
possibility of a stray thunderstorm mainly across
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/TYR from 18/22Z through 19/02Z. Additionally,
could see MVFR ceilings near daybreak across mainly LFK/TYR
terminals. Otherwise, southeast winds up to 10 knots this
afternoon to become 5 knots tonight and becoming east at 5 to 10
knots on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  90  77  95 /  20  20   0   0
MLU  73  91  72  93 /  20  10   0   0
DEQ  70  86  71  92 /  10  10   0   0
TXK  73  89  73  94 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  70  88  70  93 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  73  86  74  93 /  20  30  10   0
GGG  73  86  74  93 /  20  20  10   0
LFK  73  86  74  93 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05