Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
175 FXUS64 KSJT 311836 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 136 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline well to our west over the Trans Pecos to a weak surface low near Fort Stockton and a stationary front near the I-20 corridor form the Permain Basin eastward across the Big Country. To the south of the front across the southern 2/3 of the area, there is moderate to strong instability in place, most unstable across the Northern Edwards Plateau and effective shear bulk shear values of 35 to 45 knots over the southern half of the area. Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly south of I-20 late this afternoon and evening. Any storm that does develop will rapidly become severe due to strong/locally extreme instability and good deep layer shear. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, going with low chance Pops for tonight, mainly during the evening. For Saturday, looks mainly dry for much of the day. However, storms will fire to our west along the dryline during the afternoon. A few storms will probably move into our western counties by late afternoon with an isolated severe storm possible. Expect warm and humid conditions with highs Saturday in the 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past week so far. We`re generally expecting some diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Expect VFR conditions this afternoon and much of tonight. Expect stratus to return to much of the area Saturday and have MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals, besides KABI. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight mainly south of the I-20 corridor. A few storms may be severe. Confidence is to low to add thunder to the terminals and will watch radar trends for possible amendments. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 86 70 88 / 20 20 30 30 San Angelo 69 91 70 92 / 10 20 30 20 Junction 71 93 73 95 / 20 10 20 10 Brownwood 68 85 70 87 / 20 20 20 20 Sweetwater 68 86 69 89 / 10 20 30 30 Ozona 70 92 70 91 / 20 20 30 10 Brady 70 86 71 89 / 20 10 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...21