299
FXUS64 KSJT 271926
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
226 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 452 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

It will be a hot Memorial Day across west central Texas. Highs
will top out around 101-106 degrees across the western Concho
Valley down into the northern Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler over the northern Big Country north of a weak
frontal boundary. Otherwise, SPC has areas east of a Merkel to
Ballinger to Sonora line in a marginal risk for severe storms this
afternoon. Upper level forcing will be fairly negligible and
convergence along the dryline will be marginal. As a result CAMS
only show a few storms developing mainly across our southeastern
counties where the more favorable moisture will reside. Any storm
that does develop will likely go severe due to CAPE values of
greater than 3000 J/KG. Large hail would be the main hazard.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Storms are expected to merge into a large storm complex which
will be move southeast through West Central Texas Tuesday
evening. Nearly all of West Central Texas has been upgraded to an
enhanced risk of severe storms by SPC day 2 outlook. GFS MUCAPES
of 2500 to 4000 J/KG, with 0-6km shear of 40-50 KTS. Damaging
winds of 80 mph or more may be possible in some storms...which is
the greatest threat. Large hail also possible along with perhaps
an isolated tornado.

A moist unstable air will continue over West Central Texas into
the weekend, with dew points remaining into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The best chance of storms each day will be in the Big
Country. Potential for severe thunderstorms will continue, along
with localized flooding. Temperatures will be mainly in the 80s in
the Big Country with 90s to the south through Friday, with 90s
returning Saturday and Sunday, with perhaps 100 again in the
Concho Valley Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Mainly VFR conditions with light southerly winds are expected for
the rest of the day through tomorrow morning. An isolated storm
or two will be possible late this afternoon or evening, but this
was left out of the TAFs, except for Junction, due to low
confidence.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  91  66  80 /  10  60  60  50
San Angelo  71  97  67  89 /  10  50  50  40
Junction    71  99  69  93 /  30  30  50  40
Brownwood   69  89  67  80 /  20  50  70  50
Sweetwater  71  94  66  80 /  10  60  50  40
Ozona       72  94  67  91 /  10  40  40  30
Brady       70  91  67  83 /  20  40  60  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...SK