Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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157 FXUS64 KSJT 251154 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 654 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...A significant severe weather event is possible across the central and southern Plains states this afternoon and evening... An amplified mid level trough, currently over the western states will advance east today, with several embedded disturbances moving across the Plains states during peak heating. A dryline will extend south from far western portions of Oklahoma, into far western portions of our forecast area by this afternoon. Rich boundary layer moisture will reside east of the dryline, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Temperatures will climb well into the 90s across the Big Country and between 100 and 102 degrees farther south. This will result in a very unstable airmass across the area, with SBCAPES 3500-4000 J/kg, along with deep layer shear between 45 and 55 kts. The greatest severe weather potential today will be north of our area in Oklahoma and Kansas, where the best upper level support (short wave disturbances) is expected. Farther south across West Central Texas, convective initiation should be more isolated, with the most favored area for thunderstorms across the eastern half of the Big Country and northern Heartland, where an enhanced risk of severe storms exists. A large moderate risk of severe storms will exist across western/ central Oklahoma into Kansas where a tornado outbreak is possible. Despite limited upper level support farther south, convective inhibition will be weak by peak heating and any storms that develop should rapidly become severe. All modes of severe weather will be possible today, including very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. With that said, latest CAM`s show only isolated supercells developing across the Big Country after 4PM, so POPs were capped at 30 percent across eastern portions of the Big Country, with 20 POPs extending south into the Concho Valley and Heartland. Any storms that do develop should be east of the area by mid evening, with dry weather expected for the rest of the overnight period. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Mid level ridging will be in place across west central Texas on Sunday and Monday resulting in hot and dry conditions. Temperatures will top out in the upper 90s to near 104 degrees on Sunday, with the hottest temperatures across portions of the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast for the Big Country on Monday as a weak backdoor front approaches the I-20 corridor before stalling. South of this boundary it will still be very hot, with highs topping out in the 101-106 range from San Angelo down to Junction. The pattern becomes more unsettled as we head into the middle of the week. The mid-upper level ridge begins to break down on Tuesday with multiple shortwaves moving through the ridge Tuesday though Thursday. We could also have a surface boundary draped across the region on Wednesday. This will lead to the development of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms for the middle to end of the week. There will be some potential for severe weather on Tuesday and Wednesday but it is still too early to really dive into specifics. Also given the moist airmass in place periods of locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Otherwise, with the increased cloud cover and rain chances we`ll get some relief in the form of cooler highs for the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 MVFR stratus will affect the terminals this morning and scatter out to VFR after 17Z. There is the potential for thunderstorms to develop across the area late this afternoon, with the most favored area around the KABI terminal. Will include VCTS at KABI this forecast cycle between 22Z and 26/01Z. Any storms that develop will likely be severe. Expect light winds through early morning, then south winds will gust 20 to 25 knots after 17Z. Winds will diminish by this evening, except at KABI where winds are expected to remain gusty overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 72 97 65 / 20 10 0 0 San Angelo 101 73 101 63 / 10 10 0 0 Junction 103 74 104 66 / 10 10 0 0 Brownwood 95 72 96 63 / 20 10 0 0 Sweetwater 98 71 97 65 / 20 10 0 0 Ozona 99 72 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 96 73 96 65 / 10 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...24